Customer Churn Prediction

Churn prediction, or the task of identifying customers who are likely to discontinue use of a service, is an important and lucrative concern of any industry.

Description

This project is tasked to predict the churn score for a website based on features such as:

• User demographic information
• Browsing behavior
• Historical purchase data among other information

This project aims to identify customers who are likely to leave so that we can retain them with certain incentives.

DataSet:

• Dataset has been taken from a Hackathon, and raw dataset can be downloaded from here. Link
• Cleaned and processed version of the data can be accessed from here. Link
• Classes [Customer will EXIT(1) or NOT(0)] are properly balanced with 5:4 ratio

Notebook:

Notebook contains the EDA, data processing, and model building ideas.

Notebook	Colab	Kaggle
Customer Churn Modeling
Exploratory data analysis

Models

• The final model used is an ensemble of different classifiers such as:
  • KNN
  • Random Forest
  • AdaBoost
  • Xgboost

Project Pipeline

Techstack

Python version : 3.7
Packages: pandas, numpy, sklearn, xgboost, fastapi, seaborn
Cloud: heroku

Usage [running this locally]:

conda create -n envname python=3.7
activate envname
git clone https://github.com/d0r1h/Churn-Analysis.git
cd Churn-Analysis
pip install -r requirements.txt
python app.py

To download dataset and preprocess automatically run following script

!pip install datasets
!python src/preprocess.py

Results

• Even though Xgboost is giving good Test Accuracy of ~ 93% but we need to focus on the customers who are leaving i.e. class 1, so that we can retain them with some discount offer on membership.
• Ensemble methods (stack classifier) is having 94% of recall for predicting the customers who are likely to leave, higher than Xgboost.
• Following is confusion matrix of final classifier (stack ensemble) and xgboost classifier.

• Score table for different classifier

Inference Demo:

Application is deployed on heroku and can be accessed on https://churn01.herokuapp.com/ and sample data for the test app is here