These models attempt to provide weather-based forecasts of several important turfgrass diseases in Kentucky.
All are based on research published in scientific journals and are thus considered to be based on sound science.
However, use the predictions of these models with a certain degree of caution because the effect of the models is limited
on local condition and none of models has yet received adequate validation under Kentucky conditions.
Brown Patch Model #1:
Forecasts brown patch on perennial ryegrass. Limited evaluations suggest that this model (as modified slightly from the original publication)
is the accurate for predicting brown patch activity on perennial ryegrass for conditions in Central Kentucky.
Pythium Model #1:
Forecasts Pythium cottony blight on cool-season grasses. In Kentucky, typically this disease is of greatest concern on high-maintenance creeping
bentgrass and perennial ryegrass. The criteria of This model: the maximum air temperature > 82o F, the minimum air temperature > 68o F and.
and at least 9 hours hours of relative humidity.
Pythium Model #2:
Forecasts Pythium cottony blight on cool-season grasses. The criteria of This model:
maximum temperature > 86 F is followed by at least 14 h of relative humidity exceeding 90% with a minimum temperature > 68 F.
Conditions in the turfgrass canopy are usually more conducive to dew formation than conditions at eye level (the height of standard weather
monitoring equipment), because temperatures are usually cooler at ground level. Thus, these forecasting models may become more accurate if
one selects a lower "threshold value" for relative humidity than called for by the models themselves. For most cases, we suggest using the value
called for by the original model. However, we have provided the option for users to adjust the threshold to a lower value, should a particular
model issue too many “false negatives” (a forecast of no disease when the disease is visually active on your golf course). If you conduct such
comparisons, we welcome your feedback. Send your comments to Paul Vincelli (pvincell@uky.edu).
Simply fill out the desired parameters then press the "Submit Choices" button.
These data are based on the 24 hour period 7PM to 7PM.
And should NOT BE USED FOR LEGAL PURPOSES.
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky
