ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 082138

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025

   Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

   Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the
   southern CA coast through the extended period where dry, and at
   times windy, conditions are expected to continue for the next week.
   Elsewhere across the country, a combination of recent precipitation,
   rain/snow chances, and cold temperatures should limit additional
   fire concerns. 

   ...D3/Fri and D6/Mon to D7/Tue - Southern California Coast...
   Moderate easterly low to mid-level winds are expected to persist
   from late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday morning across far
   southern CA as an upper shortwave trough slowly translates
   east/southeast. 15-25 mph winds will likely be ongoing along the
   western slopes of the coastal terrain at the start of the forecast
   period. The ongoing offshore wind event has established a very dry
   air mass along the southern CA coast that is expected to persist
   through Friday. While winds are expected to diminish through the
   day, a few hours of elevated to critical fire weather conditions
   appear possible during the morning hours. 

   Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show the passage of an
   upper-level shortwave trough along the West Coast with a building
   surface high over the northern Great Basin during the D6/Mon to
   D7/Tues period. This synoptic regime is characteristic of previous
   critical fire patterns for the southern CA coast, and the signal for
   this regime has been fairly consistent in sequential model runs and
   among various deterministic/ensemble solutions. Confidence in
   forecast details remains very low at this range due to considerable
   spread regarding the evolution and intensity of the upper wave,
   though the general consensus appears to be that mid/upper-level
   winds for the Mon/Tue system will not be as strong compared to the
   ongoing offshore flow event. This perhaps signals a less intense
   offshore flow event overall, though critical LAX-TPH pressure
   gradient thresholds may be met based on ensemble probabilities.
   Given the persistent signal and notable fire activity across the Los
   Angeles region, 40% risk areas have been introduced for D6/Mon and
   D7/Tue when the offshore flow regime should become established.

   ..Moore.. 01/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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