FXUS61 KCAR 051445 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 945 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold cyclonic flow persists across the area today through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 945 AM Update... A few steams of snow showers can be found this morning across Piscataquis county and down into northern Washington county. Cold temperatures continue this morning, and though skies have begun to clear, winds will begin to pick up through the day as mixing heights increase, advecting cold air in from the northwest. Adjustments were made to the forecast to broaden the area with a chance for isolated snow showers, otherwise the previous forecast remains on track. Previous Discussion... The area remains under the influence of a strong blocking pattern in the North Atlantic. Strong high pressure continues to sit over southern Greenland, trapping a strong upper-level low in the Canadian Maritimes. This is resulting in cyclonic northwesterly flow over Northern and Eastern Maine. This is mainly a dry flow, but there have been isolated snow showers and flurries with any moisture that passes over the area. The threat of isolated snow showers and flurries will continue, mainly in the North, through the short-term period. However, these will produce little or no accumulation. Otherwise the story today and tonight will continue to be cold, windy conditions. 850mb temperatures today will be around -20C. Thus, high temperatures today will be in the upper single digits above zero to lower teens from Katahdin northward. To the south, expect highs in the mid to upper teens. Wind gusts could reach 30 mph in spots this afternoon. This will keep wind chill temperatures at or below zero for much of the area today. It will continue to be windy tonight as the pressure gradient between the aforementioned low and high pressure to the west remains strong. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are forecast for much of the area, with some gusts over 40 mph possible in the higher terrain. This means conditions will not be favorable for radiational cooling tonight. However, it will still be cold. Air temperatures will drop below zero in the North Woods, with single digits above zero elsewhere. Wind chill values will be between -10 and -20 for most places tonight. The Central Highlands and North Woods could see wind chills as low as -25 at times. However, not enough confidence to issue any cold weather headlines at this time. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A persistent pattern is expected to remain across the region Monday through Tuesday night. An upper level low will remain near NewFoundland Monday, with a trof extending west across the forecast area. The system then begins to retrograde westward toward the Gulf of Saint Lawrence Monday night while the upper trof pivots across the forecast area. The system then retrogrades across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence Tuesday through Tuesday night while upper troffing persists across the region. Expect mostly cloudy/partly sunny skies across northern areas Monday along with a slight chance/chance of snow showers. Little or no snow accumulation is expected. Across Downeast areas, expect mostly clear/partly sunny skies Monday. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers across northern areas Monday night, with increasing clouds Downeast. Additional moisture wrapping around the retrograding Maritimes system will help support more extensive snow showers across the north and mountains Tuesday with light snow accumulations possible. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of snow showers across Downeast areas Tuesday. A chance of snow showers will persist across the north and mountains Tuesday night along with mostly cloudy skies. Across, Downeast areas, could have a slight chance of snow showers early Tuesday night. Otherwise, expect mostly/partly cloudy skies. A tight pressure gradient will persist between strong low pressure across the Maritimes and high pressure ridged to the west Monday through Tuesday night. Gusty northwest/west winds will persist Monday through Tuesday night. Wind gusts are expected to generally range from 25 to 35 mph, locally stronger across mostly higher terrain areas. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Monday. Near normal level temperatures are expected Tuesday. The gusty winds will support colder apparent temperatures both Monday/Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The pattern changes little Wednesday, while surface/upper level lows retrograde across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. Generally expect mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance/chance of snow showers across the north and mountains Wednesday, with partly/mostly cloudy skies Downeast. The Maritimes system should begin to move east Thursday into Friday, though how rapidly this occurs is still uncertain. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance/chance of snow showers will persist across the north and mountains Thursday, with partly/mostly cloudy skies Downeast. Troffing will persist across the region Friday. Could still have a slight chance of snow showers across the north and mountains Friday along with generally partly sunny skies. Expect partly/mostly sunny skies Downeast Friday. Gusty northwest/west winds will also persist Wednesday into Friday. Significant uncertainty then exists regarding possible low pressure later Saturday dependent on the possible phasing of northern and southern stream systems. How models handle these potential phasing issues will likely result in significant differences and solutions each model run regarding the development, tracks and intensities of possible low pressure. Until these phasing issues are resolved, potential impacts on the forecast area will remain uncertain. Near normal level temperatures are expected Wednesday/Thursday. Slightly above normal level temperatures are expected Friday. Uncertainty exists regarding temperatures Saturday. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: High MVFR/Low VFR at Aroostook Terminals today due to low stratus and isolated -SHSN. Trending to all VFR tonight. VFR at BGR and Downeast terminals today and tonight. W-NW winds 5-10 kts early this morning. NW winds 10-15 kts, gusting 20-30 kts this afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kts possible tonight. LLWS later tonight at Aroostook and Washington County terminals. SHORT TERM: Monday through Thursday...Across the north and mountains, generally expect VFR/MVFR conditions. However, local IFR/LIFR also possible with any snow showers. The most extensive snow showers are expected Tuesday. Across Downeast areas, generally VFR though occasional MVFR also possible particularly Tuesday with a slight chance of snow showers. Northwest/west winds generally 15 to 25 knots with gusts 30 to 35 knots. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all waters through the day today for NW wind gusts up to 30 kts. Wind gusts will increase on the outer waters to or just above Gale force (34 kts) tonight. Thus, a Gale Warning will go into effect for tonight there. Not as much confidence in Gale force winds tonight on the intra-coastal waters. Hence, a Gale watch will remain in effect for tonight there. Light freezing spray today will become moderate tonight, when a Freezing Spray Advisory will go into effect. SHORT TERM: A Gale Warning is in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters, early Monday. A Gale Watch remains in effect for the intra-coastal waters early Monday. Generally expect small craft advisory level conditions on all the waters later Monday into Tuesday. Gale force wind gusts are then possible Tuesday night. A Freezing Spray Advisory, for moderate freezing spray, also remains in effect for all the waters early Monday. Light freezing spray is then expected later Monday into Tuesday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for ANZ050-051. Freezing Spray Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052. Gale Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Monday morning for ANZ052. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser/Clark Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...AStrauser/Clark/Norcross Marine...AStrauser/Clark/Norcross pFad - Phonifier reborn

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