FXUS61 KGYX 051530 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1030 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Winds will be very gusty today with increased mixing and a strong gradient. A very cold air moves in for today and tonight, when wind chills will likely drop to around zero or below across most of the area. Temperatures will continue to run below normal through most of next week with mostly dry conditions as the storm track will be south of New England. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1025 AM...Some updates to cover the meteorological goings on this morning. Winds have not come up quite as expected, but they should by midday or so, so have adjusted for this. Also should see an increase in clover outside the mtns, early to mid afternoon, before some clearing late in the mtns, while the mtns are likely to remain m/cloudy into this evening at least. There will probably be some light SHSN continuing in the mtns through much of the day, especially closer to the intl border. 541 AM Update... Have upped the pops for scattered snow showers and flurries for this morning. Latest surface observations and webcams continue to show very light precipitation crossing the region from time to time with the greatest concentration of snow showers in the northern mountains. Otherwise, expect mainly dry conditions as we head into tonight and Monday with cold conditions and lowered wind chill values. Prev Disc... Low pressure will continue to be situated over the Canadian Maritimes today allowing for yet another round of strong gusty winds. The northwesterly gradient will tighten once again along with good mixing from above. This will allow for wind gusts over 30 mph at times. Some upslope snow showers can be expected in the mountains with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. Temperatures will struggle to climb through the single numbers in the mountains today with teens to mid 20s in the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The combination of a steady breeze tonight with air temperatures dropping to near zero in the north and 10 degrees above in the south will allow for very low wind chill values. Considered a Cold Weather Advisory however most of the coldest locations are confined to the higher terrain. It will still be cold on Monday, but temperatures will top out a few degrees warmer than Sunday. There will be less wind as lower pressure tracks by to our south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Evening Update...Have blended in the new NBM to the long term grids which yields very little change to the forecast. Just continued cold and occasional bouts of mountain snow showers. Previously... Overview: Cyclonic flow to the north is set to keep the area free of big weather makers in the mid to long term. The main takeaway will be persistent northwest flow feeding cool and dry air into the region through mid week next week. A slight warming trend is possible by late week as the pattern looks to shift. Details: Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will influence much of our weather to start next week. Northern New England will be in position to see NW winds for much of early to mid week based on where this low positions itself. In a blocked state, large variations in weather don’t seem likely until a pattern shift late week. Enough low level moisture amid the NW flow will be enough to continue upslope snow showers for days on end in the mountains. Intensity will likely waver as this moisture ebbs and flows, but in general snow showers remain in the forecast Mon-Fri AM for points near the International Border and White Mtns. Will need to watch where embedded shortwaves could cause some of these showers to become unblocked by the mountains, spilling into the foothills and interior of ME/NH. The first instance of this may be Monday afternoon where Froude numbers climb into the afternoon and evening hours. As with much of any feed of NW flow in the winter, the cool and dry airmass will be prominent in the area through next week. Ensemble probs of snowfall is a notable minimum for our region through the period, with just flurries or trace amounts of snow on the lee side of the mountains to the coast. Upwind, light accums will be attainable based on the forecast residence time of moisture and upslope conditions. Should blocked flow truly pan out through the period, mountain locations could see snow falling at a clip to keep snowpack fresh. In the absence of deeper moisture however, confidence in total amounts is low at this time. A change in pattern character is not anticipated until late week. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...Could be some periods of MVFR cigs and a few SHSN at KHIE through today, otherwise VFR is expected through Monday. West to Northwest winds could gust to near 30 kt at times today. Long Term...VFR expected Monday through Wednesday. SN will be possible at HIE for much of next week in upslope snow showers with NW winds. This may limit visibility at times as well as bring lowered ceilings. && .MARINE... Short Term...West-northwesterly wind gusts up to 30 kts and seas of 2-5 ft will remain possible outside of the bays through today. Across the bays, wind gusts will mostly remain below 25 kts with seas of 1-3 ft. Light freezing spray is possible through at least tonight. Long Term...Winds may subside a bit this evening, but should surge toward daybreak from the WNW behind a cold front, and this should continue through the day on Sunday and possibly into Sunday night. Some light freezing expected tonight into Sunday, but it will be more widespread on Sunday night. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Monday for ANZ150>152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ153. && $$ NEAR TERM...Cannon/Cempa SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Ekster pFad - Phonifier reborn

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