SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

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081
ACUS01 KWNS 300554
SWODY1
SPC AC 300552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected today into
early tonight, particularly from the middle Missouri Valley area
into the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and become
negatively tilted as it impinges on the Upper MS Valley today.
Surface lee-troughing will remain in place across the Plains,
resulting in the northward transport of an appreciably moist
low-level airmass. A surface low will develop along the KS/OK border
this afternoon and track toward the MS Valley this evening. A cold
front will be draped across the MS Valley into KS while a dryline,
extending from the low, is poised to sweep eastward across OK and
northern TX through the day. Deep-layer ascent along and ahead of
the cold front and dryline will support at least scattered
thunderstorm initiation by late afternoon across the Plains. These
storms will progress eastward amid a buoyant and highly sheared
airmass. Severe storms are likely ahead of the cold front and
dryline, with all hazards possible.

...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains...
Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate along the cold front
over northern KS into western IA by mid to late afternoon as
stronger upper-level support from the impinging mid-level trough
overspreads the terminus of a 50+ kt southerly low-level jet. 7+
C/km mid-level lapse rates, overspreading rich low-level moisture
(including mid-60s F surface dewpoints), should yield at least 1500
J/kg SBCAPE. Strong southwesterly 500 mb flow overspreading the
low-level jet will contribute to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear,
but with vectors aligned roughly parallel with the front. Initial
semi-discrete storm modes, capable of mainly severe wind/hail, will
quickly merge to form a QLCS with embedded bowing segments and
perhaps a few mesovortices. This initial band of storms should
approach the MS Valley region by sunset, accompanied by mainly
damaging gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat.

Farther south into central KS/northern OK, more discrete
thunderstorm development is expected by early evening. Surface
temperatures in the upper 70s F, combined with mid to perhaps upper
60s F dewpoints, will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE just
before sunset. Storms that can mature in this environment may
benefit from over 50 kts of effective bulk shear, as well as an
increase in low-level shear upon approaching the western periphery
of the low-level jet. Forecast soundings depict overall curved
low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation and 250-350 m2/s2
effective SRH. As such, supercells should be the initial storm mode
before storm mergers result in squall line development. While many
forecast soundings depict a weakness in the 800-600 mb layer, the
overall strength of the low-level shear suggests at least a few
tornadoes are possible, and a strong tornado or two may occur,
mainly after dark. The severe threat may transition to more of a
damaging gust threat after the squall line forms, though
line-embedded QLCS tornadoes remain possible.

..Squitieri/Lyons.. 10/30/2024

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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971
FLUS43 KLOT 300211 AAA
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
911 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-310215-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
911 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 /1011 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wednesday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 1 of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Elevated Fire Weather Risk.
Thursday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 1 of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Elevated Non Thunderstorm Wind Risk.

DISCUSSION...

Strong and gusty winds from the south southwest are expected
Wednesday through Wednesday night. While relative humidities will
be higher, the gusty winds will result in another elevated fire
danger Wednesday afternoon, mainly for areas south of I-80.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. While the severe threat remains low, a few
could produce strong wind gusts.

Westerly winds gusting up to 45 mph are expected behind a cold
front on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

$$

LMZ740>745-310215-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
911 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Gale force winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wednesday and Thursday...
Gale force winds are expected.
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

$$

Visit us at www.weather.gov/chicago

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Youtube at:
www.facebook.com/nwschicago
www.twitter.com/nwschicago
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The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

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081
ACUS02 KWNS 300556
SWODY2
SPC AC 300554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts, will be
possible Thursday afternoon along a narrow corridor from the Sabine
River Valley north-northeastward into far southern Lower Michigan.

...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio
Valley/Southern Great Lakes...
A negatively-tilted upper-level trough, and an associated 70 to 80
knot mid-level speed max, will move northeastward into the Great
Lakes on Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will advance
eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of
the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to weak
destabilization in most areas by midday. Convection is expected to
initiate along and ahead the front during the late morning as
surface temperatures warm. Thunderstorms should gradually increase
in coverage in the afternoon, moving eastward across the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Ohio Valley.

Model solutions appear to present two scenarios. The first solution,
which is depicted by the NAM, initiates convection near the front
around midday from east-central Texas north-northeastward into the
mid Mississippi Valley, with a second north-to-south band of storms
developing much further east in the lower Mississippi Valley. The
second solution, which is depicted by the ECMWF, focuses most of the
convection further east near the center of the low-level moisture
corridor in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Strong outflow from
the previous night's convection is forecast to surge southeastward
across much of central and east Texas Thursday morning, which could
favor the second scenario, with an effective frontal boundary much
further east.

The severe threat should be concentrated along and near the axis of
the strongest low-level flow, which is forecast to be in the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Ohio Valley. Forecast soundings
near the moist axis in the afternoon have MLCAPE peaking from around
500 J/kg in the lower Ohio Valley to 1500 J/kg in the lower
Mississippi Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along much
of the moist axis, where low-level lapse rates could peak near 7
C/km in areas that heat up the most. This environment will likely
support an isolated wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with
the stronger and more organized multicells. A marginal tornado
threat may also develop, mainly from western Tennessee
south-southwestward into northern Louisiana, where the combination
of instability and shear is forecast to be maximized, in conjunction
with steep low-level lapse rates.

..Broyles.. 10/30/2024

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

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294
ACUS03 KWNS 291908
SWODY3
SPC AC 291906

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST
TO TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe storms, capable of producing gusty/damaging
winds and possibly a tornado, are expected Thursday morning and
afternoon within a narrow zone extending from the Midwest to East
Texas.

...Synopsis...
An upper short-wave trough is forecast to cross the Upper
Mississippi Valley and then Upper Great Lakes region Thursday,
before continuing across Ontario and eventually Quebec and the Lower
Great Lakes Thursday night. Meanwhile farther west, an upper low
will gradually move onshore across the Pacific Northwest.

At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the Great
Lakes and Midwest, and eventually New England and the Northeast,
while sagging more slowly southward across the Tennessee and Lower
Mississippi Valleys through Friday morning.

...Lower Michigan southwestward across parts of East Texas...
A frontal band of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to extend
from the Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan vicinity southwestward to
eastern Texas at the start of the period, accompanied by
limited/local risk for gusty winds.

As the front advances, instability should remain quite limited --
particularly from the Ohio Valley northward. Still, tall/thin CAPE
profiles combined with favorably strong/veering flow with height
suggest local/limited risk for strong wind gusts -- and possibly a
tornado -- as far north as the Lower Michigan vicinity. As such, an
expansion of Level 1/MRGL risk is being included for this forecast
cycle.

Potential for stronger storms will remain largely confined to the
daytime hours, though may linger locally into the evening over
southern potions of the risk area (the Tennessee area southward).

..Goss.. 10/29/2024

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

See Product Description

249
WWUS83 KLOT 300204
RFWLOT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
904 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

ILZ013-014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-300315-
/O.EXP.KLOT.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-241030T0200Z/
DuPage-Cook-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-Kankakee-Livingston-
Iroquois-Ford-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
904 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 /1004 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Relative humidity levels will slowly rise through the night
though southerly winds will gust as high as 40 mph at times.

$$

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

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No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

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No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

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No active Non-Precip Statement for DuPage County.

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.