December 28, 2012 Space Weather Prediction Center Space Weather Discussion A Space Weather Forecast Discussion bulletin, issued twice daily at 0030 UTC and 1230 UTC and updated out-of-cycle as conditions warrant, detailing recently observed space weather data, model guidance, and forecaster rationale and tailored toward the sophisticated user and detailed scientific perspective. The last 75 Reports are included in this directory. Issue time: Daily at 0030 and 1230 UTC. Period Covered: Activity from previous 24 hour period, and predicted activity for next 3 days. Available: via SWPC Anonymous FTP server ftp.swpc.noaa.gov. /pub/latest/forecast_discussion.txt --- most recent report /pub/forecasts/discussion --- last 75 reports via SWPC Web site: http://swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/forecast_discussion.txt http://swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/discussion.html Older reports, beginning in 1996, are on-line in the SWPC Warehouse. Via Anonymous FTP: ftp.swpc.noaa.gov cd to /pub/warehouse/ Via the Web: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/warehouse.html This, and other forecasts and summary reports, are available via email. https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov/ See http://swpc.noaa.gov/Data/ for other SWPC data and products. *************************************************************** ** Please read the SWPC Disclaimer at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ ** before using the forecasts and data in these reports. *************************************************************** SWPC provides near-real-time and recent data, solar and geomagnetic indices and solar event reports created from preliminary reports. Preliminary data may contain errors or be revised after further review. The historical products in this SWPC Warehouse are the preliminary reports as originally published. SWPC does not encourage the use of preliminary data for research purposes. Links to archive sites with final data: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Data/ ****************************************************************** Please send comments and questions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov Report problems to SWPC.CustomerSupport@noaa.gov ======================================================================= SAMPLE :Product: forecast_discussion.txt :Issued: 2012 Dec 12 1235 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was a C5/Sf from Region 1629 (N11W14) at 12/0727 UTC. Region 1629 has remained stable but has shown slight flux emergence in the leading spots. Region 1630 (N20W27) was responsible for a few B-class flares early in the period but has been quiet since 12/0011 UTC. This region showed signs of decay in its intermediate spots with slight growth in both the leader and follower. New Region 1631 (N20E02) was numbered overnight and has been categorized as a Bxo/beta spot group. LASCO C2 imagery has shown multiple back sided coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the past 24 hours however none appear to be Earth-directed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares for the next three days (13-15 Dec). Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit has been at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit has also been at background levels. .Forecast... Proton and electron fluxes are expected to remain at background levels for the next three days (13-15 Dec). Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind velocity, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, started the period at approximately 300 km/s and has decreased to approximately 275 km/s at the close of the period. The Total IMF reached a high of 5 nT. The Bz component hit -5 nT. At approximately 12/0700 UTC the phi angle went negative but reverted back to a positive sector two hours later. .Forecast... On day one (13 Dec), a solar sector boundary (SSB) is expected to precede the arrival of a weak negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). With the arrival of this CH HSS, elevated solar wind speeds ranging from 350-450 are likely. On days two and three (14-15 Dec), a return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field has been quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Dec), as a negative polarity coronal hole in the northern solar hemisphere becomes geoeffective. A return to quiet levels is expected on days two and three (14-15 Dec), as effects from the CH HSS wane. ============================================================================= DESCRIPTION Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... A summary of significant solar features and activity observed during the reporting period, including characteristics of sunspot groups, magnetic fields, flares, radio bursts, and active filaments associated with significant solar regions. Significant solar limb and disk features, including major filament disappearances, are also included. .Forecast... A forecast of the potential for solar activity during the next 3 days. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... A description of significant proton and electron events and satellite-level particle enhancements observed during the reporting period. .Forecast... A forecast of the potential for particle enhancements during the next 3 days. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... A summary of solar wind parameters as measured by the ACE spacecraft. .Forecast... A forecast of expected solar wind parameters related to coronal hole high speed stream and coronal mass ejection effects. Geospace .24 hr Summary... A description of significant geomagnetic activity. .Forecast... A forecast of the expected level of geomagnetic activity during the next 3 days. pFad - Phonifier reborn

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