December 28, 2012 Space Weather Prediction Center 3-day Space Weather Forecast A 3-Day Space Weather Forecast product, issued twice daily at 0030 UTC and 1230 UTC and updated out-of-cycle as conditions warrant, to relay forecast information in formats consistent with existing NOAA Scale thresholds in succinct plain language. The last 75 Reports are included in this directory. Issue time: Daily at 0030 and 1230 UTC. Period Covered: Activity from previous 24 hour period, and predicted activity for next 3 days. Available: via SWPC Anonymous FTP server ftp.swpc.noaa.gov. /pub/latest/three_day_forecast.txt --- most recent report /pub/forecasts/three_day --- last 75 reports via SWPC Web site: http://swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/three_day_forecast.txt http://swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/three_day.html Older reports, beginning in 1996, are on-line in the SWPC Warehouse. Via Anonymous FTP: ftp.swpc.noaa.gov cd to /pub/warehouse/ Via the Web: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/warehouse.html This, and other forecasts and summary reports, are available via email. https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov/ See http://swpc.noaa.gov/Data/ for other SWPC data and products. *************************************************************** ** Please read the SWPC Disclaimer at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ ** before using the forecasts and data in these reports. *************************************************************** SWPC provides near-real-time and recent data, solar and geomagnetic indices and solar event reports created from preliminary reports. Preliminary data may contain errors or be revised after further review. The historical products in this SWPC Warehouse are the preliminary reports as originally published. SWPC does not encourage the use of preliminary data for research purposes. Links to archive sites with final data: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Data/ ****************************************************************** Please send comments and questions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov Report problems to SWPC.CustomerSupport@noaa.gov ======================================================================= SAMPLE :Product: three_day_forecast.txt :Issued: 2012 Dec 12 1235 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 12-Dec 14 2012 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 12-Dec 14 2012 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 00-03UT 0 2 2 03-06UT 0 1 2 06-09UT 1 1 0 09-12UT 0 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 3 2 21-00UT 2 3 2 Rationale: Expecting predominately quiet conditions throughout the forecast period. A chance for unsettled conditions exists late on 13 Dec as a negative polarity coronal hole/high speed stream becomes geoeffective. No NOAA scale G1 or greater storms expected. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 12-Dec 14 2012 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No NOAA scale S1 or greater storms are expected. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 12-Dec 14 2012 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No NOAA scale R1 or greater storms are expected. ============================================================================= DESCRIPTION Part A. Highest observed and predicted daily geomagnetic Kp-indices (planetary K-indices) with a short, plain language rationale to explain the geomagnetic forecast, based on coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and coronal mass ejection (CME) effects. Part B. Observed and predicted solar radiation events including satellite- level particle enhancements, probability forecast of conditions reaching the indicated level for the next three days, and a short plain language rationale to explain the solar radiation forecast based on solar flare activity from active sunspot regions. Part C. Observed and predicted radio blackouts, probability forecast of conditions reaching the indicated level for the next three days, and a short plain language rational to explain the radio blackout forecast based on solar flare activity from active sunspot regions. pFad - Phonifier reborn

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