- ——— (2013): “When credit bites back,†Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45, 3–28.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- ——— (2020): “Systemic banking crises database II,†IMF Economic Review, 1–55.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
ALVAREZ, F. E., D. ARGENTE, AND F. LIPPI (2020): “A simple planning problem for covid-19 lockdown,†NBER Working Paper No. 26981.
ATKESON, A. (2020): “What will be the economic impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough estimates of disease scenarios,†NBER Working Paper No. 26867.
BAKER, S. R., N. BLOOM, AND S. J. DAVIS (2016): “Measuring economic policy uncertainty, †Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131, 1593–1636.
BAKER, S. R., N. BLOOM, S. J. DAVIS, AND S. J. TERRY (2020): “Covid-induced economic uncertainty,†NBER Working Paper No. 26983.
- BARRO, R. J., J. F. URSUÃŒÂA, AND J. WENG (2020): “The coronavirus and the great influenza pandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu†for the coronavirus’s potential effects on mortality and economic activity,†NBER Working Paper No. 26866.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- BENIGNO, G. AND L. FORNARO (2018): “Stagnation traps,†Review of Economic Studies, 85, 1425–1470.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
BERGER, D. W., K. F. HERKENHOFF, AND S. MONGEY (2020): “An SEIR infectious disease model with testing and conditional quarantine,†NBER Working Paper No. 26901.
BETHUNE, Z. A. AND A. KORINEK (2020): “Covid-19 infection externalities: Trading off lives vs. livelihoods,†NBER Working Paper No. 27009.
BONADIO, B., Z. HUO, A. A. LEVCHENKO, AND N. PANDALAI-NAYAR (2020): “Global supply chains in the pandemic,†CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14766.
- bThe West African Ebola outbreak began December 26, 2013 and was declared a PHEIC August 8, 2014.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
CARROLL, C. D., E. CRAWLEY, J. SLACALEK, AND M. N. WHITE (2020): “Modeling the consumption response to the CARES act,†Working Paper.
CERRA, V. AND S. C. SAXENA (2008): “Growth dynamics: the myth of economic recovery, †American Economic Review, 98, 439–57.
CERRA, V., U. PANIZZA, AND S. C. SAXENA (2013): “International evidence on recovery from recessions,†Contemporary Economic Policy, 31, 424–439.
- CHANG, A. Y., K. COWLING, A. E. MICAH, A. CHAPIN, C. S. CHEN, G. IKILEZI, N. SADAT, G. TSAKALOS, J. WU, T. YOUNKER, ET AL. (2019): “Past, present, and future of global health financing: a review of development assistance, government, out-ofpocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995–2050,†The Lancet, 393, 2233–2260.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- CHANG, C., K. ORTIZ, A. ANSARI, AND M. E. GERSHWIN (2016): “The Zika outbreak of the 21st century,†Journal of Autoimmunity, 68, 1–13.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- CORREIA, S., S. LUCK, AND E. VERNER (2020): “Pandemics depress the economy, public health interventions do not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu,†SSRN Working Paper.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- cThe Zika virus outbreak occurred at October, 2015 but was declared a PHEIC February 1, 2016 S.5 Table S.2 Details of Six Pandemic and Epidemic Events Episodes Vaccine/Cure Government Response 1968 Flu “Split vaccine†developed in 1968 The 1968 Flu spread widely as a result of international air travel, but the effects surfaced differently in different regions — the US and Canada experienced a severe initial wave with less a severe subsequent wave, while the reverse held true for Europe and Asia. In North America, where the burden of the flu was relatively small in comparison to in Europe and Asia, government relied on vaccination, hospitalization, and antibiotics to treat secondary pneumonia. Quarantines, closures, and other non-pharmaceutical means of intervention were not quite necessary to curb the disease.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Detailed information can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_by_country. However, the estimate from US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for global death troll is 284,000, about 15 times more than the number of laboratory-confirmed cases. See details in http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2012/06/ cdc-estimate-global-h1n1-pandemic-deaths-284000.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- DRECHSEL, T. AND S. KALEMLI-OZCAN (2020): “Are standard macro and credit policies enough to deal with the economic fallout from a global pandemic? A proposal for a negative SME tax,†Working Paper.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
DRISCOLL, J. AND A. KRAAY (1998): “Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data,†Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 549–560.
DUPRAZ, S., E. NAKAMURA, AND J. STEINSSON (2019): “A plucking model of business cycles,†NBER Working Paper No. 26351.
EGGERTSSON, G. B. (2011): “What fiscal policy is effective at zero interest rates?†NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 25, 59–112.
EGGERTSSON, G. B. AND P. KRUGMAN (2012): “Debt, deleveraging, and the liquidity trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo approach,†Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127, 1469– 1513.
EGGERTSSON, G. B., N. R. MEHROTRA, S. R. SINGH, AND L. H. SUMMERS (2016): “A contagious malady? Open economy dimensions of secular stagnation,†IMF Economic Review, 64, 581–634.
EICHENBAUM, M. S., S. REBELO, AND M. TRABANDT (2020): “The macroeconomics of epidemics,†NBER Working Paper No. 26882.
FAN, V. Y., D. T. JAMISON, AND L. H. SUMMERS (2016): “The inclusive cost of pandemic influenza risk,†NBER Working Paper No. 22137.
- FATAÃŒÂS, A. AND L. H. SUMMERS (2018): “The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations,†Journal of International Economics, 112, 238–250.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
FERNANDES, A. AND H. TANG (2020): “How did the 2003 SARS epidemic shape Chinese trade?†SSRN Working Paper 3603699.
FORNARO, L. AND M. WOLF (2020): “Covid-19 coronavirus and macroeconomic policy,†CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14529.
GLOVER, A., J. HEATHCOTE, D. KRUEGER, AND J.-V. RIÃŒÂOS-RULL (2020): “Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic,†NBER Working Paper No. 27046.
- GOURINCHAS, P. O. (2020): “Flattening the pandemic and recession curves,†Working Paper, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mwMDiPQK88x27JznMkWzEQpUVm8Vb4WI/ view?usp=sharing.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
GUERRIERI, V., G. LORENZONI, L. STRAUB, AND I. WERNING (2020): “Macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: Can negative supply shocks cause demand shortages ?†NBER Working Paper No. 26918.
HOFFMAN, S. J. AND S. L. SILVERBERG (2018): “Delays in global disease outbreak responses: Lessons from H1N1, Ebola, and Zika,†American Journal of Public Health, 108, 329–333.
- HUANG, H. (2017): “Germs, roads and trade: Theory and evidence on the value of diversification in global sourcing,†SSRN Working Paper 3095273.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- JAMISON, D. T., L. H. SUMMERS, G. ALLEYNE, K. J. ARROW, S. BERKLEY, A. BINAGWAHO, F. BUSTREO, D. EVANS, R. G. FEACHEM, J. FRENK, ET AL. (2013): “The Lancet commissions,†Lancet, 382, 1898–955.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- JAMISON, D., R. NUGENT, H. GELBAND, S. HORTON, P. JHA, R. LAXMINARAYAN, AND C. MOCK (2017): Disease Control Priorities, vol. 9, World Bank: Washington, DC, 3 ed.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- JORDÀ, Ò. (2005): “Estimation and inference of impulse responses by local projections,†American Economic Review, 95, 161–182.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
JORDÀ, Ò., M. SCHULARICK, AND A. M. TAYLOR (2011): “Financial crises, credit booms, and external imbalances: 140 years of lessons,†IMF Economic Review, 59, 340–378.
JORDÀ, Ò., S. R. SINGH, AND A. M. TAYLOR (2020): “Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics,†NBER Working Paper No. 26934.
- Laeven and Valencia (2013) Quarterly GDP growth rate Quarterly percentage growth rate of GDP (seasonal adjusted) based on same quarter at year t −1 (YoY change).
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
LAEVEN, L. AND F. VALENCIA (2013): “Systemic banking crises database,†IMF Economic Review, 61, 225–270.
LEVCHENKO, A. A., L. T. LEWIS, AND L. L. TESAR (2010): “The collapse of international trade during the 2008–09 crisis: In search of the smoking gun,†IMF Economic review, 58, 214–253.
- MALMENDIER, U. AND L. S. SHEN (2018): “Scarred consumption,†NBER Working Paper No. 24696.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- MATEUS, A. L., H. E. OTETE, C. R. BECK, G. P. DOLAN, AND J. S. NGUYEN-VANTAM (2014): “Effectiveness of travel restrictions in the rapid containment of human influenza: a systematic review,†Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 92, 868– 880D.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- NOTE: The note relies on information mainly from Jamison et al. (2017), Mateus et al. (2014), Chang et al. (2016), Williams et al. (2015), Saunders-Hastings and Krewski (2016) and online information from https://graduateinstitute.ch/communications/news/brief-international-history-pandemics.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
NOVY, D. AND A. M. TAYLOR (2014): “Trade and uncertainty,†Review of Economics and Statistics, 1–50.
- Percent 0 1 2 3 4 5 Years Panel C: Government Spending (% GDP) Panel D: Government Revenue (% GDP) -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 Percent 0 1 2 3 4 5 Years -1 -.5 0 .5 Percent 0 1 2 3 4 5 Years NOTE: Impulse response functions (IRF) are estimated based on the local projection method as in Jordà (2005): yit+H = αH i + ∑4 s=1 βH s yit−s + ∑4 s=0 δH s Dit−s + Xit + εit ,with H = 0,1, ,5, where yit is the annual central government debt (% GDP), fiscal surplus (% GDP), government spending (% GDP) or government revenue (% GDP) for country i at year t, Dit is a dummy variable indicating a disease event hitting country i in year t, with Xit including country-level controls such as Trade/GDP, Domestic Credit/GDP, population and log GDP per capita. We also include a decade dummy, U.S. recession dummy, a banking crisis dummy and country fixed effects.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
REINHART, C. M. AND K. S. ROGOFF (2009): “The aftermath of financial crises,†American Economic Review, 99, 466–72.
- S32Malmendier and Shen (2018) show that personal experiences from negative economic shocks “scar†consumer behavior in the long run. The authors do not directly address health crises per se, but instead show that households who have lived through times of high unemployment spend significantly less on food and total consumption, after controlling for income, wealth, employment, demographics, and the current unemployment rate. Their model of experience-based learning is suggestive of a channel through which a shock like COVID could have persistent effects. Carroll et al. (2020) also study the negative impact of COVID on consumption spending. S.15 Figure S.5 The Effect of Health Crises on Consumption and Investment Panel A: Private Consumption Growth Panel B: Fixed Investment Growth -10 -7 -4 -1 2 5 Percent 0 1 2 3 4 5 Years -10 -7 -4 -1 2 5
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- SARS No cure Efforts to suppress SARS included isolation of symptomatic patients and rigid hospital infection control practices. The latter proved to be particularly effective in the 2003 SARS pandemic in hospitals in Hong Kong SAR, China, in which none of the health care workers wearing proper PPE ever contracted SARS. Governments mainly utilized containment measures which mirrored those used to rid of bubonic plagues — case tracking, quarantining those infected, bans on large gatherings, examination of travelers, improved PPE and barrier protection. These measures, working in tandem with travel restrictions, successfully curbed SARS likely because SARS is characterized by an insignificant asymptomatic carrier state and relatively shorter incubation periods.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- SAUNDERS-HASTINGS, P. R. AND D. KREWSKI (2016): “Reviewing the history of pandemic influenza: understanding patterns of emergence and transmission,†Pathogens, 5, 66.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Standard errors are corrected using Driscoll and Kraay (1998). One standard error bands are shown. S.3 Figure S.4 Health Spending and Crisis Severity Panel A: Health Spending Adjustment and Mortality Rate -.01 0 .01 .02 .03 .04 Health Spending Adjustment (% GDP) 0 20 40 60 80 100 Mortality Rate (%) Panel B: Health Spending Adjustment and Case Rate -.01 0 .01 .02 .03 .04 Health Spending Adjustment (% GDP) 0 1 2 3 Case/Pop Rate NOTE: Panel A plots the relationship between health spending adjustment (defined as the change of health spending in the onset year normalized by the previous year’s GDP) and the mortality rate, for all episodes in affected countries. The regression line has a slope of -0.000012 with t-stat at-0.59. Panel B plots the relationship between health spending adjustment and the case rate for all the episodes in affected countries. The regression line has a slope of 0.0009 with t-stat at 0.55.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- WDI Log(GDP per capita) The natural logarithm of GDP per capita (measured as GDP divided by midyear population) in constant 2010 U.S. dollar at year t. WDI Recession Dummy An indicator equals to one if year t is within the contractions of U.S. business cycle and zero for the expansions. NBER Banking Crisis Dummy An indicator equals to one if a country at year t is identified as systematic banking crisis and zero otherwise.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- We use our estimates from the historical episodes, juxtaposed against current forecasts of the effects of COVID-19 from the IMF, World Bank, OECD, Consensus Forecasts, and the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections, to gauge just how different “this time†might be. We begin with a simple projection for GDP growth in 2020 and 2021 using our estimates from the historical episodes. We report three cases of GDP growth for: world, advanced economies, and the United States. Because COVID is more severe than the average historical episode, we base the projections on estimates of the high severity dummy from our severity specifications. We use estimates for the onset year and one year later (see Figure S.1 and Table A.3). We make projections for the world and the advanced economies separately, from estimates using our full sample and advanced economies sample, respectively. We use estimates from the advanced economies sample to form our U.S. projection.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now