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- bThe West African Ebola outbreak began December 26, 2013 and was declared a PHEIC August 8, 2014.
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- cThe Zika virus outbreak occurred at October, 2015 but was declared a PHEIC February 1, 2016 S.5 Table S.2 Details of Six Pandemic and Epidemic Events Episodes Vaccine/Cure Government Response 1968 Flu “Split vaccine†developed in 1968 The 1968 Flu spread widely as a result of international air travel, but the effects surfaced differently in different regions — the US and Canada experienced a severe initial wave with less a severe subsequent wave, while the reverse held true for Europe and Asia. In North America, where the burden of the flu was relatively small in comparison to in Europe and Asia, government relied on vaccination, hospitalization, and antibiotics to treat secondary pneumonia. Quarantines, closures, and other non-pharmaceutical means of intervention were not quite necessary to curb the disease.
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- Detailed information can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_by_country. However, the estimate from US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for global death troll is 284,000, about 15 times more than the number of laboratory-confirmed cases. See details in http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2012/06/ cdc-estimate-global-h1n1-pandemic-deaths-284000.
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- NOTE: The note relies on information mainly from Jamison et al. (2017), Mateus et al. (2014), Chang et al. (2016), Williams et al. (2015), Saunders-Hastings and Krewski (2016) and online information from https://graduateinstitute.ch/communications/news/brief-international-history-pandemics.
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- Percent 0 1 2 3 4 5 Years Panel C: Government Spending (% GDP) Panel D: Government Revenue (% GDP) -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 Percent 0 1 2 3 4 5 Years -1 -.5 0 .5 Percent 0 1 2 3 4 5 Years NOTE: Impulse response functions (IRF) are estimated based on the local projection method as in Jordà (2005): yit+H = αH i + ∑4 s=1 βH s yit−s + ∑4 s=0 δH s Dit−s + Xit + εit ,with H = 0,1, ,5, where yit is the annual central government debt (% GDP), fiscal surplus (% GDP), government spending (% GDP) or government revenue (% GDP) for country i at year t, Dit is a dummy variable indicating a disease event hitting country i in year t, with Xit including country-level controls such as Trade/GDP, Domestic Credit/GDP, population and log GDP per capita. We also include a decade dummy, U.S. recession dummy, a banking crisis dummy and country fixed effects.
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- S32Malmendier and Shen (2020) show that personal experiences from negative economic shocks “scar†consumer behavior in the long run. The authors do not directly address health crises per se, but instead show that households who have lived through times of high unemployment spend significantly less on food and total consumption, after controlling for income, wealth, employment, demographics, and the current unemployment rate. Their model of experience-based learning is suggestive of a channel through which a shock like COVID could have persistent effects. Carroll et al. (2020) also study the negative impact of COVID on consumption spending. S.15 Figure S.5 The Effect of Health Crises on Consumption and Investment Panel A: Private Consumption Growth Panel B: Fixed Investment Growth -10 -7 -4 -1 2 5 Percent 0 1 2 3 4 5 Years -10 -7 -4 -1 2 5
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- SARS No cure Efforts to suppress SARS included isolation of symptomatic patients and rigid hospital infection control practices. The latter proved to be particularly effective in the 2003 SARS pandemic in hospitals in Hong Kong SAR, China, in which none of the health care workers wearing proper PPE ever contracted SARS. Governments mainly utilized containment measures which mirrored those used to rid of bubonic plagues — case tracking, quarantining those infected, bans on large gatherings, examination of travelers, improved PPE and barrier protection. These measures, working in tandem with travel restrictions, successfully curbed SARS likely because SARS is characterized by an insignificant asymptomatic carrier state and relatively shorter incubation periods.
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- Standard errors are corrected using Driscoll and Kraay (1998). One standard error bands are shown. S.3 Figure S.4 Health Spending and Crisis Severity Panel A: Health Spending Adjustment and Mortality Rate -.01 0 .01 .02 .03 .04 Health Spending Adjustment (% GDP) 0 20 40 60 80 100 Mortality Rate (%) Panel B: Health Spending Adjustment and Case Rate -.01 0 .01 .02 .03 .04 Health Spending Adjustment (% GDP) 0 1 2 3 Case/Pop Rate NOTE: Panel A plots the relationship between health spending adjustment (defined as the change of health spending in the onset year normalized by the previous year’s GDP) and the mortality rate, for all episodes in affected countries. The regression line has a slope of -0.000012 with t-stat at-0.59. Panel B plots the relationship between health spending adjustment and the case rate for all the episodes in affected countries. The regression line has a slope of 0.0009 with t-stat at 0.55.
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- WDI Log(GDP per capita) The natural logarithm of GDP per capita (measured as GDP divided by midyear population) in constant 2010 U.S. dollar at year t. WDI Recession Dummy An indicator equals to one if year t is within the contractions of U.S. business cycle and zero for the expansions. NBER Banking Crisis Dummy An indicator equals to one if a country at year t is identified as systematic banking crisis and zero otherwise.
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- We use our estimates from the historical episodes, juxtaposed against current forecasts of the effects of COVID-19 from the IMF, World Bank, OECD, Consensus Forecasts, and the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections, to gauge just how different “this time†might be. We begin with a simple projection for GDP growth in 2020 and 2021 using our estimates from the historical episodes. We report three cases of GDP growth for: world, advanced economies, and the United States. Because COVID is more severe than the average historical episode, we base the projections on estimates of the high severity dummy from our severity specifications. We use estimates for the onset year and one year later (see Figure S.1 and Table A.3). We make projections for the world and the advanced economies separately, from estimates using our full sample and advanced economies sample, respectively. We use estimates from the advanced economies sample to form our U.S. projection.
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