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1. ...currently: Very easy - Somewhat easy - Neither easy nor difficult - Somewhat difficult - Very difficult ...in 2022: Very easy - Somewhat easy - Neither easy nor difficult - Somewhat difficult -Very difficult How easy would it be for your household to take out a mortgage loan? ...currently: Very easy - Somewhat easy - Neither easy nor difficult - Somewhat difficult - Very difficult ...in 2022: Very easy - Somewhat easy - Neither easy nor difficult - Somewhat difficult -Very difficult Credit Market Expectations Imagine your household wants to take out a loan to finance consumption expenditures.
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2. &XPXODWLYH'LVWULEXWLRQ 3ROLF\5DWH([SHFWDWLRQV 3URIHVVLRQDO)RUHFDVWHUV +RXVHKROGV 3DQHO%+RXVHKROGVYV([SHUWV Notes: Panel A shows the cumulative distribution functions of firms’ and experts’ expectations about the policy rate in 2021 based on a supplementary survey question in the regular ifo Investment Survey conducted in September and October 2019 and the October 2019 round of the ECB SPF, respectively. Panel B shows the cumulative distribution functions of households’ and experts’ expectations about the policy rate in 2022 based on a representative household survey conducted in December 2019 and the January 2020 wave of the ECB SPF, respectively. Households observations are weighted using data from the 2019 wave of the GSOEP. Predictions are winsorized at-0.5% and 2% across all datasets for expositional purposes.
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3. ——— (2020): “ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen,” Tech. rep., ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung.
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4. ——— (2021): “Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms Subjective Beliefs,” NBER Working Paper No. 29430.
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5. ——— (2022): “IQ, Expectations, and Choice,” Review of Economic Studies.
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6. AFROUZI, H. (2020): “Strategic Inattention, Inflation Dynamics, and the Non-Neutrality of Money,” CESifo Working Paper No. 8218.

7. AFROUZI, H. AND C. YANG (2021): “Dynamic Rational Inattention and the Phillips Curve,” CESifo Working Paper No. 8840.

8. “Increase 2020” is a dummy taking value one if the respondent received the forecast predicting a policy rate increase in 2020, and zero if the respondent received the forecast predicting an increase in 2025 at the earliest. Expectations about real rates are obtained by deflating expected nominal rates by the respondents’ expected inflation rate for 2022. In all regressions we control for the same variables as in Table 6. Robust standard errors are displayed in parentheses. * denotes significance at 10 pct., ** at 5 pct., and *** at 1 pct. level.
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9. “Increase 2020” is a dummy taking value one if the respondent received the forecast predicting a policy rate increase in 2020, and zero if the respondent received the forecast predicting an increase in 2025 at the earliest. Panel A displays the immediate effect in the December 2019 household survey. Panel C reports the effects of the information treatment in a four-week follow up in January 2020. Panel B presents the results based on the main survey in December 2019 for those households that are also in the sample of Panel C.
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10. ANDRE, P., C. PIZZINELLI, C. ROTH, AND J. WOHLFART (2022): “Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Experts and a Representative Sample,” Review of Economic Studies.
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11. ANDRE, P., I. HAALAND, C. ROTH, AND J. WOHLFART (2021): “Inflation Narratives,” Available at SSRN.
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12. ANGELETOS, G.-M. AND C. LIAN (2018): “Forward Guidance Without Common Knowledge, ” American Economic Review, 108, 2477–2512.

13. Arm: Increase 2020 Currently the policy rate of the ECB is 0%. According to an expert who regularly participates in an expert survey of the ECB on the future economic development, the policy rate of the ECB will rise to a higher level in the third quarter of 2020 (next summer).
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14. Arm: Increase 2025 Currently the policy rate of the ECB is 0%. According to an expert from a German Bank, the policy rate of the ECB will rise to a higher level at the earliest in 2025 (in five years). Macroeconomic Expectations In what follows we will ask you some questions about the aggregate economy.
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15. Arm: Increase 2025 Currently the policy rate of the ECB is 0%. According to an expert from a German Bank, the policy rate of the ECB will rise to a higher level at the earliest in 2025 (in five years). Macroeconomic Expectations Over the course of this survey we will repeatedly ask you things about your assessment in percentage terms. If you think that the respective probability/percentage change is X%, then please enter X.
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16. ARMONA, L. C., A. FUSTER, AND B. ZAFAR (2019): “Home Price Expectations and Behavior: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment,” Review of Economic Studies, 86, 1371–1410.

17. BACHMANN, R. AND P. ZORN (2020): “What Drives Aggregate Investment? Evidence from German Survey Data,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 103873.

18. BACHMANN, R., B. BORN, S. ELSTNER, AND C. GRIMME (2019): “Time-Varying Business Volatility and the Price Setting of Firms,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 101, 82–99.

19. BACHMANN, R., K. CARSTENSEN, S. LAUTENBACHER, AND M. SCHNEIDER (2020): “Uncertainty is More Than Risk–Survey Evidence on Knightian and Bayesian Firms,” Working Paper.
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20. BACHMANN, R., S. ELSTNER, AND A. HRISTOV (2017): “Surprise, Surprise–Measuring Firm-level Investment Innovations,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 83, 107– 148.

21. BACHMANN, R., S. ELSTNER, AND E. R. SIMS (2013): “Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data,” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 5, 217–49.

22. BACHMANN, R., T. O. BERG, AND E. R. SIMS (2015): “Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence,” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 7, 1–35.

23. BAILEY, M., R. CAO, T. KUCHLER, AND J. STROEBEL (2018): “The Economic Effects of Social Networks: Evidence from the Housing Market,” Journal of Political Economy, 126, 2224–2276.

24. BALL, L., N. G. MANKIW, AND R. REIS (2005): “Monetary Policy for Inattentive Economies,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, 703–725.

25. BALLEER, A., S. LINK, M. MENKHOFF, AND P. ZORN (2020): “Demand or Supply? Price Adjustment during the Covid-19 Pandemic,” CEPR Discussion Paper 14907.

26. BRUINE DE BRUIN, W., W. VAN DER KLAAUW, G. TOPA, J. S. DOWNS, B. FISCHHOFF, AND O. ARMANTIER (2012): “The Effect of Question Wording on Consumers’ Reported Inflation Expectations,” Journal of Economic Psychology, 33, 749–757.

27. BUCHHEIM, L., J. DOVERN, C. KROLAGE, AND S. LINK (2022): “Sentiment and Firm Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic,” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization.

28. CANDIA, B., O. COIBION, AND Y. GORODNICHENKO (2021): “The Inflation Expectations of US Firms: Evidence from a New Survey,” NBER Working Paper 28836.

29. CARROLL, C. D. (2003): “Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 269–298.

30. CAVALLO, A., G. CRUCES, AND R. PEREZ-TRUGLIA (2017): “Inflation Expectations, Learning and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Field Experiments,” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 9, 1–35.

31. COIBION, O. AND Y. GORODNICHENKO (2012): “What Can Survey Forecasts Tell us about Information Rigidities?” Journal of Political Economy, 120, 116–159.

32. COIBION, O., D. GEORGARAKOS, Y. GORODNICHENKO, AND M. WEBER (2020a): “Forward Guidance and Household Expectations,” NBER Working Paper No. 26778.
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33. COIBION, O., Y. GORODNICHENKO, AND M. WEBER (2022): “Monetary Policy Communications and their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations,” Journal of Political Economy.

34. COIBION, O., Y. GORODNICHENKO, AND R. KAMDAR (2018a): “The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve,” Journal of Economic Literature, 56, 1447–91.
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35. COIBION, O., Y. GORODNICHENKO, AND S. KUMAR (2018b): “How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence,” American Economic Review, 108, 2671–2713.
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36. COIBION, O., Y. GORODNICHENKO, AND T. ROPELE (2020c): “Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135, 165– 219.
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37. COIBION, O., Y. GORODNICHENKO, S. KUMAR, AND J. RYNGAERT (2021): “Do You Know that I Know that You Know...? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 136, 1387–1446.

38. COIBION, O., Y. GORODNICHENKO, S. KUMAR, AND M. PEDEMONTE (2020b): “Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?” Journal of International Economics, 103297.
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39. Comparison of Households’ and Firms’ Expectations with Professional Forecasts Panel A of Figure A.1 displays the cumulative density function of firms’ and experts’ beliefs about the ECB policy rate 2021. Since our main firm survey in December 2019 did not allow us to elicit prior beliefs due to the paper and pencil format, we rely on a question we included in the previous regular round of the ifo Investment Survey conducted in September and October 2019, which was answered by 731 firms. We compare firms’ re1 Figure A.1: Prior Policy Rate Expectations from before the Coronavirus Pandemic &XPXODWLYH'LVWULEXWLRQ 3ROLF\5DWH([SHFWDWLRQV 3URIHVVLRQDO)RUHFDVWHUV )LUPV 3DQHO$)LUPVYV([SHUWV
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40. CORNAND, C. AND P. HUBERT (2021): “Information Frictions in Inflation Expectations among Five Types of Economic Agents,” Working Paper.

41. D’ACUNTO, F., D. HOANG, M. PALOVIITA, AND M. WEBER (2021): “Human Frictions to the Transmission of Economic Policy,” Working Paper.

42. D’ACUNTO, F., U. MALMENDIER, AND M. WEBER (2021): “Gender Roles and the Gender Expectations Gap,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118, 1–10.
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43. DE QUIDT, J., J. HAUSHOFER, AND C. ROTH (2018): “Measuring and Bounding Experimenter Demand,” American Economic Review, 108, 3266–3302.

44. Discussion Taken together, the policy rate forecast has no strong effects on expectations about aggregate unemployment or inflation or on households’ and firms’ expected own income and business situation. These patterns suggest that communication about the duration of the zero lower bound environment may not be successful in changing economic agents’ expectations about the broader economy or their own circumstances beyond the effects on interest rate expectations. Our findings are in line with evidence by Coibion et al. (2020a) that information about policy rates has no meaningful effects on households’ expectations about aggregate unemployment. However, in contrast to our findings, Coibion et al. (2020a) detect stronger reactions of households’ inflation expectations to interest rate projections in an environment outside the zero lower bound.
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45. DOVERN, J., L. S. MULLER, AND K. WOHLRABE (2020): “How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-Scale Business Survey,” CESifo Working Paper No. 8179.

46. DRÄGER, L. AND G. NGHIEM (2021): “Are Consumers’ Spending Decisions in Line with A Euler Equation?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 103, 580–596.

47. Effects on Other Credit Market Expectations Table B.2 highlights that our December 2019 information intervention also significantly changes households’ expected real policy rates and expected real mortgage, consumer loan, and savings account rates, which are adjusted for respondents’ inflation expectations (Panel A Columns 1 through 4). By contrast, firms’ expected real policy and loan rates do not respond to the treatment (Panel B Columns 1 and 2). The treatment also significantly increases the probability households assign to a rate hike in 2022 (Panel A Column 5), while it does not affect the perceived probability of a rate decrease (Panel A Column 6). These effects on other credit market expectations confirm our main findings reported in Sections 3.3 and 3.4 that households significantly update their expectations in response to expert forecasts about policy rates, while firms do not change their views.
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48. ENDERS, Z., F. HÜNNEKES, AND G. J. MÜLLER (2019): “Monetary Policy Announcements and Expectations: Evidence from German Firms,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 108, 45–63.

49. Expectations about Interest Rates: No Anchor [G3Q2 and G4Q1:] What do you think will the policy rate be on average in 2022: __% [G6Q1:] What do you think will the policy rate be on average in 2025: __% Expectations about Interest Rates: With Anchor [G1Q2 and G2Q1:] Currently the policy rate of the ECB is 0%. What do you think will the policy rate be on average in 2022: __% [G5Q1:] Currently the policy rate of the ECB is 0%. What do you think will the policy rate be on average in 2025: __% Expectations about Inflation and Unemployment [G3Q1 and G4Q2:] What do you expect the inflation rate to be over the year 2022? __% [G1Q1 and G2Q2:] What do you expect the unemployment rate to be on average in the year 2022. __% Trust [G5Q2 and G6Q2:] How much trust do you have in the economic forecasts of experts? __ (1 = no trust at all, 7 = very high trust).
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50. FETZER, T., L. HENSEL, J. HERMLE, AND C. ROTH (2021): “Coronavirus Perceptions and Economic Anxiety,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 103, 968–978.

51. FRACHE, S. AND R. LLUBERAS (2018): “New Information and Inflation Expectations among Firms,” BIS Working Paper No. 781.
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52. FUSTER, A., R. PEREZ-TRUGLIA, M. WIEDERHOLT, AND B. ZAFAR (2020): “Expectations with Endogenous Information Acquisition: An Experimental Investigation,” Review of Economics and Statistics.
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53. GOLDFAYN-FRANK, O. AND J. WOHLFART (2020): “Expectation Formation in a New Environment: Evidence from the German Reunification,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 115, 301–320.

54. HAALAND, I., C. ROTH, AND J. WOHLFART (2021): “Designing Information Provision Experiments,” Journal of Economic Literature.
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55. HANSPAL, T., A. WEBER, AND J. WOHLFART (2021): “Exposure to the COVID-19 Stock Market Crash and its Effect on Household Expectations,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 103, 994–1010.

56. In line with our main evidence, households’ expectations about policy rates are more dispersed and less aligned with those of experts compared to firms’ expectations. There are some caveats one should keep in mind in the interpretation of these results from our 2019 surveys. First, given that we provided both firms and households with information about the current policy rate, the differences in expectations we detect in this survey can be seen as a lower bound (see our evidence on the effect of the anchor in Section 2.6). Second, firms’ and households’ expectations concern different reference years, 2021 and 2022, which is due to availability of expert forecasts only for 2021 at the time of the October 2019 round of the ifo Investment Survey.
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57. Inflation refers to the percent increase in the general price level measured by the so-called Consumer Price Index. A decrease in the general price level is called deflation (negative inflation). The current rate of inflation in Germany is 1.1%. What do you expect the inflation rate to be in in the following years? __% over the year 2020. __% over the year 2022.
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58. Inflation refers to the percent increase in the general price level measured by the so-called Consumer Price Index. What do you expect the inflation rate to be in the following years? __% over the year 2020. __% over the year 2022.
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59. KIM, G. AND C. BINDER (2020): “Learning-Through-Survey in Inflation Expectations,” Available at SSRN 3790834.
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60. KUCHLER, T. AND B. ZAFAR (2019): “Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes,” Journal of Finance, 74, 2491–2542.

61. LINK, S. (2019): “The Price and Employment Response of Firms to the Introduction of Minimum Wages,” CESifo Working Paper No. 7575.

62. MAĆKOWIAK, B. AND M. WIEDERHOLT (2015): “Business Cycle Dynamics under Rational Inattention,” The Review of Economic Studies, 82, 1502–1532.
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63. Macroeconomic Expectations Learning that the central bank is planning to leave interest rates low for longer than previously thought could affect firms’ and households’ expectations about unemployment and inflation. On the one hand, agents could perceive more accommodating monetary policy to lead to higher demand, resulting in lower unemployment and higher inflation. On the other hand, the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates low for longer could be perceived as a reaction to negative news about future demand, leading agents to expect higher unemployment and lower inflation (Wiederholt, 2015). The question how economic agents interpret forecasts about the timing of policy rate hikes is central for monetary policy communication, and ultimately determines the potential of forward guidance about future interest rates to change economic decisions.
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64. MALMENDIER, U. AND S. NAGEL (2016): “Learning from Inflation Experiences,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131, 53–87.

65. MANKIW, N. G. AND R. REIS (2002): “Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117, 1295–1328.

66. MIKOSCH, H., C. ROTH, S. SARFERAZ, AND J. WOHLFART (2021): “Uncertainty and Information Acquisition: Evidence from Firms and Households,” Available at SSRN.

67. PACIELLO, L. AND M. WIEDERHOLT (2014): “Exogenous Information, Endogenous Information, and Optimal Monetary policy,” Review of Economic Studies, 81, 356–388.

68. Panel B of Figure A.1 shows the cumulative density function of household expectations about the ECB policy rate in 2022 as well as expert predictions taken from the January 2020 round of the SPF. Households on average expect a policy rate of 0.53% for the year 2022 with a standard deviation of 0.72 p.p., higher than the average rate predicted by experts of 0.09% (standard deviation: 0.16 p.p.). Moreover, 64% of households in our sample expect a policy rate between-0.4% and 0.5%, within the range of the expert forecasts.
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69. Panel D depicts the results for the firm survey from December 2019. In all regressions we control for the same variables as in Table 6. Robust standard errors are displayed in parentheses. * denotes significance at 10 pct., ** at 5 pct., and *** at 1 pct. level.
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70. REIS, R. (2006): “Inattentive Consumers,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 53, 1761–1800.
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71. Robustness Table B.4 demonstrates that the main results from our 2019 information treatment (described in Sections 3.3 and 3.4) are robust to winsorizing expectations instead of trimming them (using the same cutoffs as used for the trimming in the main results). Moreover, Table B.5 shows that the results are robust to excluding control variables.
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72. ROTH, C. AND J. WOHLFART (2020): “How Do Expectations About the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 102, 731–748.

73. ROTH, C., M. WIEDERHOLT, AND J. WOHLFART (2021b): “The Effects of Forward Guidance: Theory with Measured Expectations,” ECONtribute Discussion Paper.
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74. ROTH, C., S. SETTELE, AND J. WOHLFART (2021a): “Risk Exposure and Acquisition of Macroeconomic Information,” American Economic Review: Insights.
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75. SAUER, S. AND K. WOHLRABE (2019): “CEO or Intern-Who Actually Answers the Questionnaires in the ifo Business Survey?” CESifo Forum, 20, 29–31.

76. SAVIGNAC, F., E. GAUTIER, Y. GORODNICHENKO, AND O. COIBION (2021): “Firms’ Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 29376.

77. SIMS, C. A. (2003): “Implications of Rational Inattention,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 50, 665–690.

78. sponses to expert forecasts from the October 2019 round of the SPF. As can be seen, firms’ expectations are quite closely aligned with those of professional forecasters. Firms predict a policy rate of 0.16% on average for the year 2021 with a standard deviation of 0.44 p.p., while experts predict a policy rate of 0.04% on average (standard deviation: 0.16 p.p.). Moreover, 83% of firms in our sample expect a policy rate between 0% and 0.5%, within the range of forecasts given by the professionals.
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79. The current unemployment rate in Germany is 5.0%. What do you expect the unemployment rate to be on average in the following years? __% in the year 2020. __% in the year 2022.
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80. The current unemployment rate in Germany is 5%. What do you expect the unemployment rate to be on average in the following years? __% in the year 2020. __% in the year 2022. Perceived Credit Constraints How easy would it be for your household to take out a loan to finance consumption expenditures ?
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81. The statistics from the firm sample are based on firms in the control group of the experiment used in Coibion et al. (2020c), i.e., they are based on firms that were never provided with inflation-related information. Columns 2 through 6 depict the mean, median, standard deviation, interquartile range, and the difference between the 90th and 10th percentile for expected inflation in the firm survey, respectively. Column 7 displays the mean absolute deviation of firms’ expectations from professional forecasts from Consensus Economics. Column 8 presents the number of observations. Columns 9 through 15 present the same statistics for the household sample. The p-values in Column 16 reject the null hypothesis that the mean absolute bias of households and firms from the expert benchmark depicted in Columns 7 and 14 are equal.
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82. We leverage quarterly data on 12-month ahead inflation expectations from firms participating in the Bank of Italy’s Survey on Inflation and Growth Expectations (SIGE), and compare them to households’ expectations measured in a special survey conducted by YouGov for the investment firm M&G during the years 2013-2015. In the firm survey, a random subset of firms received information about the current realization of inflation, which is exploited by Coibion et al. (2020c) to study the causal effect of inflation expectations on firm decisions. We focus on the subsample of firms that did not receive the anchor about the current inflation rate to make the evidence comparable to the household sample.
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83. What do you expect the unemployment rate in Germany to be on average in the following years? __% in the year 2020. __% in the year 2022.
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84. What do you think will the key interest rate be on average ... ... in 2022: __% ... in 2025: __% How certain are you about your expectations about the ECB interest rate? very certain - certain - uncertain - very uncertain In this question we present you three scenarios about the average level of the key interest rate in 2022. For each scenario, please let us know the percent chance you assign to the event that this scenario happens. The probabilities of the three scenarios have to sum up to 100 percent.
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85. What do you think will the key interest rate be on average ... ... in 2022: __% ... in 2025: __% How certain are you about your expectations about the ECB interest rate? very certain - certain - uncertain - very uncertain Macroeconomic Expectations Inflation refers to the percent increase in the general price level measured by the so-called Consumer Price Index. A decrease in the general price level is called deflation (negative inflation). What do you expect the inflation rate in Germany to be in the following years? __% over the year 2020. __% over the year 2022.
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86. What do you think will the policy rate be on average ... __% in 2022 __% in 2025 How certain are you about your expectations about the policy rate of the ECB? very certain - certain - uncertain - very uncertain News Consumption How often in the last two weeks came news about the policy rate of the European Central Bank (ECB) to your attention? Never - Once - Between 2 and 3 times - Between 4 and 5 times - More than 5 times Trust in ECB How much trust do you have in the ECB? Please enter a number between 0 and 10 (0 = no trust at all, 10 = very high trust).
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87. What do you think will the policy rate be on average ... ... in 2022: __% ... in 2025: __% How certain are you about your expectations about the ECB policy rate? very certain - certain - uncertain - very uncertain Information Treatment On the next page you will receive an expert forecast about the future development of the ECB policy rate. Please carefully review the forecast, you will not be able to go back to that page. On the next page you can only proceed after 5 seconds.
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88. What do you think would be the interest rate your household would have to pay on such a loan? ...currently: __% ...in 2022: __% Imagine your household wants to take out a fairly large mortgage. What do you think would be the interest rate your household would have to pay on such a loan? ...currently: __% ...in 2022: __% What do you think is the interest rate your household could earn by saving on a savings account? ...currently: __% ...in 2022: __% Personal Income and Unemployment Expectations The next question is about the net labor income of your household. By net labor income we mean the amount your household earns through either self-employment or wage earnings after taxes and transfers. What do you think, in percentage terms, how much higher or lower will be your households’ total net labor income in 2022 compared to today? If you expect a lower net labor income, please enter a negative number.
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89. What do you think, by how many percent will your households’ total net labor income change each year on average over the next 3 years? If you expect a decrease, please enter a negative number. __% What do you think is the probability that you will be involuntarily unemployed for at least 3 months in the following years? ...2020: __% ...2022: __% Posterior Expectations about the Interest Rate We want to ask you again for your assessment regarding the development of the interest rate. When do you think will the policy rate of the ECB rise to a level above 0%? The key interest rate will rise to a level above 0% in the year ____ .
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90. Which federal state do you live in? What is your highest level of education? School-leaving certificate from: Special school - Lower secondary school - Polytechnic secondary school (POS), 8th grade (GDR degree) - Secondary school - Polytechnic secondary school (POS), 10th grade (GDR degree) - Advanced technical college - High school - Extended comprehensive school (EOS) (GDR degree) or professional education with Abitur (GDR degree) - Other: __ Expectations about Interest Rates: No Anchor What do you think will the policy rate be on average in 2022: __% How certain are you about your estimate about the development of the ECB policy rate? very certain - certain - uncertain - very uncertain What do you think will the policy rate be on average in 2025: __% How certain are you about your estimate about the development of the ECB policy rate? very certain - certain - uncertain - very uncertain Expectations about Interest Rates: With Anchor Currently the policy rate of the ECB is 0%.
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91. WIEDERHOLT, M. (2015): “Empirical Properties of Inflation Expectations and the Zero Lower Bound,” Working Paper.
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3. Examining the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the U.S.: Why has the relationship between inflation and unemployment weakened?. (2024). Haschka, Rouven E.
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4. Effects of monetary policy on household expectations: The role of homeownership. (2024). Xie, Shihan ; Ahn, Hie Joo ; Yang, Choongryul.
   In: Journal of Monetary Economics.
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5. Asymmetric information and misaligned inflation expectations. (2024). Han, Zhao.
   In: Journal of Monetary Economics.
   RePEc:eee:moneco:v:143:y:2024:i:c:s0304393223001253.

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6. Tell me something I don’t already know: learning in low and high-inflation settings. (2024). Weber, Michael ; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy ; Frache, Serafin ; Coibion, Olivier ; Afrouzi, Hassan ; Lluberas, Rodrigo ; Ropele, Tiziano ; Candia, Bernardo ; Kenny, Geoff ; Ponce, George ; Georgarakos, Dimitris ; Kumar, Saten ; Meyer, Brent.
   In: Working Paper Series.
   RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242914.

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7. Inattention and the impact of monetary policy. (2023). Sheng, Xuguang Simon ; Abozaid, Salem ; An, Zidong.
   In: Journal of Applied Econometrics.
   RePEc:wly:japmet:v:38:y:2023:i:4:p:623-643.

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8. Tell Me Something I Dont Already Know: Learning in Low and High-Inflation Settings. (2023). Lluberas, Rodrigo ; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy ; Frache, Serafin ; Kumar, Saten ; Meyer, Brent ; Ropele, Tiziano ; Candia, Bernardo ; Ponce, Jorge ; Weber, Michael ; Kenny, Geoff ; Coibion, Olivier ; Georgarakos, Dimitris.
   In: IZA Discussion Papers.
   RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16305.

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9. Perceptions about Monetary Policy. (2023). Pflueger, Carolin ; Bauer, Michael D ; Sunderam, Adi.
   In: Working Paper Series.
   RePEc:fip:fedfwp:97242.

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10. Tell Me Something I Dont Already Know: Learning in Low- and High-Inflation Settings. (2023). Gorodnichenko, Yuriy ; Frache, Serafin ; Kumar, Saten ; Kenny, Geoff ; Georgarakos, Dmitris ; Coibion, Olivier ; Candia, Bernardo ; Weber, Michael ; Ropele, Tiziano ; Meyer, Brent ; Lluberas, Rodrigo.
    In: FRB Atlanta Working Paper.
    RePEc:fip:fedawp:96613.

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11. Undisclosed material inflation risk. (2023). Konchitchki, Yaniv ; Xie, Jin.
    In: Journal of Monetary Economics.
    RePEc:eee:moneco:v:140:y:2023:i:s:p:s82-s100.

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12. Rational inattention, misallocation, and the aggregate economy. (2023). Gondhi, Naveen.
    In: Journal of Monetary Economics.
    RePEc:eee:moneco:v:136:y:2023:i:c:p:50-75.

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13. Learning specialists and market resilience. (2023). Contreras, Alfredo.
    In: Finance Research Letters.
    RePEc:eee:finlet:v:52:y:2023:i:c:s1544612322006924.

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14. The impact of supply chain disruptions on business expectations during the pandemic. (2023). Meyer, Brent ; Prescott, Brian C ; Sheng, Xuguang Simon.
    In: Energy Economics.
    RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:126:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323004498.

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15. Rational inattention and the business cycle effects of productivity and news shocks. (2023). Maćkowiak, Bartosz ; Wiederholt, Mirko ; Makowiak, Bartosz.
    In: Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232827.

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16. Did monetary policy kill the Phillips Curve? Some simple arithmetics. (2023). Vaccaro-Grange, Etienne ; Furlanetto, Francesco ; Bergholt, Drago.
    In: Working Paper.
    RePEc:bno:worpap:2023_2.

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17. Perceptions about monetary policy. (2022). Sunderam, Adi ; Pflueger, Carolin E ; Bauer, Michael D.
    In: IMFS Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:zbw:imfswp:176.

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18. The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications. (2022). Coibion, Olivier ; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy ; Dacunto, Francesco ; Weber, Michael.
    In: IZA Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15391.

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19. Information Frictions among Firms and Households. (2022). Peichl, Andreas ; Link, Sebastian ; Wohlfart, Johannes ; Roth, Christopher.
    In: IZA Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15090.

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20. Rational inattention, menu costs, and multi-product firms: Micro evidence and aggregate implications. (2022). Yang, Choongryul.
    In: Journal of Monetary Economics.
    RePEc:eee:moneco:v:128:y:2022:i:c:p:105-123.

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21. The impact of guidance, short-term dynamics and individual characteristics on firms’ long-term inflation expectations. (2022). Rosenblatt-Wisch, Rina ; Zanetti, Attilio ; Raggi, Christian ; Hunziker, Hans-Ueli.
    In: Journal of Macroeconomics.
    RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:71:y:2022:i:c:s0164070421000793.

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22. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations. (2022). Sheng, Xuguang Simon ; Prescott, Brian ; Meyer, Brent H.
    In: International Journal of Forecasting.
    RePEc:eee:intfor:v:38:y:2022:i:2:p:529-544.

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23. Does monetary policy fuel bitcoin demand? Event-study evidence from emerging markets. (2022). Marmora, Paul.
    In: Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.
    RePEc:eee:intfin:v:77:y:2022:i:c:s1042443121001931.

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24. Does domestic investment respond to inflation targeting? A synthetic control investigation. (2022). McCloud, Nadine.
    In: International Economics.
    RePEc:eee:inteco:v:169:y:2022:i:c:p:98-134.

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25. Multi-layered rational inattention and time-varying volatility. (2022). Hobler, Stephan.
    In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
    RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:138:y:2022:i:c:s016518892200077x.

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26. Perceptions about Monetary Policy. (2022). Sunderam, Adi ; Pflueger, Carolin E ; Bauer, Michael D.
    In: CESifo Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10182.

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27. Information Frictions among Firms and Households. (2022). Wohlfart, Johannes ; Roth, Christopher ; Peichl, Andreas ; Link, Sebastian.
    In: ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series.
    RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:140.

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28. Bayesian learning. (2021). Baley, Isaac ; Veldkamp, Laura.
    In: Economics Working Papers.
    RePEc:upf:upfgen:1797.

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29. A check for rational inattention. (2021). Howard, Greg.
    In: MPRA Paper.
    RePEc:pra:mprapa:108243.

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30. Rationally Inattentive Monetary Policy. (2021). Kamdar, Rupal ; Bernstein, Joshua.
    In: CAEPR Working Papers.
    RePEc:inu:caeprp:2021003.

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31. Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms Perspectives on Inflation. (2021). Sheng, Xuguang ; Parker, Nicholas B ; Meyer, Brent H.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2021-002.

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32. Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms Perspectives on Inflation. (2021). Sheng, Xuguang ; Meyer, Brent ; Parker, Nicholas B.
    In: FRB Atlanta Working Paper.
    RePEc:fip:fedawp:90556.

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33. The attention trap: Rational inattention, inequality, and fiscal policy. (2021). MacAulay, Alistair.
    In: European Economic Review.
    RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:135:y:2021:i:c:s0014292121000696.

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34. Rational inattention: a review. (2021). Maćkowiak, Bartosz ; Wiederholt, Mirko ; Matjka, Filip ; Makowiak, Bartosz.
    In: Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212570.

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35. Dynamic Rational Inattention and the Phillips Curve. (2021). Yang, Choongryul ; Afrouzi, Hassan.
    In: CESifo Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8840.

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36. Bayesian Learning. (2021). Veldkamp, Laura ; Baley, Isaac.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:bge:wpaper:1287.

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37. Inflation -- who cares? Monetary Policy in Times of Low Attention. (2021). Pfauti, Oliver.
    In: Papers.
    RePEc:arx:papers:2105.05297.

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38. Choice Simplification: A Theory of Mental Budgeting and Naive Diversification*. (2020). Koszegi, Botond ; Kszegi, Botond ; Matjka, Filip.
    In: The Quarterly Journal of Economics.
    RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:135:y:2020:i:2:p:1153-1207..

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39. Dynamic Oligopoly and Price Stickiness. (2020). Werning, Iván ; Wang, Olivier.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27536.

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40. Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory. (2020). Huo, Zhen ; Angeletos, George-Marios ; Sastry, Karthik A.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27308.

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41. What’s up with the Phillips Curve?. (2020). Tambalotti, Andrea ; Primiceri, Giorgio ; Lenza, Michele ; Del Negro, Marco.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27003.

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42. The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations. (2020). Meyer, Brent.
    In: FRB Atlanta Working Paper.
    RePEc:fip:fedawp:89448.

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43. What’s up with the Phillips Curve?. (2020). Lenza, Michele ; Del Negro, Marco ; Tambalotti, Andrea ; Primiceri, Giorgio E.
    In: Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202435.

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44. Investment under Rational Inattention: Evidence from US Sectoral Data. (2020). Zorn, Peter.
    In: CESifo Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8436.

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45. Strategic Inattention, Inflation Dynamics, and the Non-Neutrality of Money. (2020). Afrouzi, Hassan.
    In: CESifo Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8218.

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46. The Role of Dispersed Information in Inflation and Inflation Expectations. (). Mao, Ruoyun ; Han, Zhao.
    In: Review of Economic Dynamics.
    RePEc:red:issued:20-423.

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