- Acemoglu, D. & Ozdaglar, A. (Fall, 2009). 6.207/14.15: Networks Lecture 8: Diffusion through Networks. MIT Open. https://economics.mit.edu/files/4626 Allcott, H., et. al. (2020). “Polarization and Public Health: Partisan Differences in Social Distancing during the Coronavirus Pandemicâ€. NBER Working Paper #26946.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Alvarez, F. E., Argente, D., & Lippi, F. (2020). “A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdownâ€. NBER Working Paper #26981.
Atkeson, A., (2020a). “What Will Be the Economic Impact of Covid-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios,†NBER Working Paper 26867.
Atkeson, A., (2020b). “How Deadly Is COVID-19? Understanding the Difficulties with Estimation of Its Fatality Rateâ€. NBER Working Paper #26965.
- Azzoni, T, and A. Dampf, (2020, March). “Game Zero?' Soccer Game Attended by 40,000 Fans Likely Made This Italian City a Coronavirus Epicenter†Time. https://time.com/5809848/gamezero -soccer-game-italy/ Barari, S. et. al., (2020). “Evaluating COVID-19 Public Health Messaging in Italy: Self-Reported Compliance and Growing Mental Health Concerns,â€. Working Paper. https://j.mp/39btyT2 Bendavid E., & Bhattacharya, J. “Is the Coronavirus Epidemic as Deadly as They Say?†Wall Street Journal, March 24, 2020.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Berger, D., Herkenhoff, K., & Mongey, S. (2020). “An SEIR Infectious Disease Model with Testing and Conditional Quarantine,†NBER Working Paper 26901.
- Blackwood, J., & Childs, L. (2018). An introduction to compartmental modeling for the budding infectious disease modeler. Letters in Biomathematics, 5(1), pp.195-221.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Bolker, B. (1999). Analytic models for the patchy spread of plant disease. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 61(5), 849-874.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Booth, W. (2020). “A chilling scientific paper helped upend U.S. and U.K. coronavirus strategiesâ€, Washington Post. March 17, 2020.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Borjas, G. (2020). “Demographic Determinants of Testing Incidence and COVID-19 Infections in New York City Neighborhoodsâ€. NBER Working Paper #26952.
- Branswell, H., (2020). CDC launches studies to get more precise count of undetected Covid-19 cases, STAT. April 4, 2020.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Brauer, F., Van den Driessche, P., & Wu, J. (2008). Mathematical epidemiology (Lecture notes in mathematics (Springer-Verlag). 1945. Berlin: Springer.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Bricese, G., Lacetra, N., Macis, M., & Tonin, M. (2020). “Compliance with COVID-19 SocialDistancing Measures in Italy: The Role of Expectations and Duration,†NBER Working Paper 26916.
- Cereda, D., et al., (2020). The early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy. ArXiv.org. Mar 20, 2020. https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2003/2003.09320.pdf Chiou, L. & Tucker, C. (2020) “Social Distancing, Internet Access, and Inequalityâ€. NBER Working Paper #26982.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Chang, B. (2020). “France has converted its high-speed TGV trains into ambulances to transport critically ill coronavirus patients across the country,†Business Insider. April 1, 2020.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- CNN.com, March 24, 2020 Hurford, A. (2012). “Mechanistic Models – What is the Value of Understanding?†https://theartofmodelling.wordpress.com/2012/02/19/mechanistic-models-what-is-the-value-ofunderstanding /
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Cummins, E. (2020). “Why the Coronavirus Test Gives So Many False Negatives,†Slate.com, April 6, 2020.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Dalziel, B., et. al. (2016). Persistent Chaos of Measles Epidemics in the Prevaccination United States Caused by a Small Change in Seasonal Transmission Patterns. Plos Computational Biology, 12(2), E1004655.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Dawsey, J., Abutaleb, Y., Stein, J., Wagner, J. (2020). “Trump weighs restarting economy despite warnings from U.S. public health officials,†Washington Post, March 23, 2020 Dushoff, J., (2020). “Preparing for the Storm,†March 23, 2020, http://dushoff.github.io/notebook/covid.html Easley, D., & Kleinberg, J. (2010). Networks, crowds, and markets: Reasoning about a highly connected world. New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Ellyat, H. (2020). “Germany has a low coronavirus mortality rate: Here’s whyâ€, CNBC.com.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Epstein, R., “Coronavirus Perspective,†working paper. Hoover Institution. Stanford University, March 16, 2020. https://www.hoover.org/research/coronavirus-pandemic Fang, H., Wang, L. & Yang, Y. (2020), “Human Mobility Restrictions and the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-NCOV) in China,†NBER Working Paper 26906.
- Ferguson, N., et al., (2020). “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand,†Working Paper, Imperial College London. https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/77482 Ferretti, L. et al., (2020). “Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing,†Science. March 31, 2020.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Fink, S., (2020). “White House Takes New Line After Dire Report on Death Toll,†New York Times, March 16, 2020.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Flaxman, S. et al. (2020). “Estimating the number of infections and the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries,†Working Paper, Imperial College London. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid19 /report-13-europe-npi-impact/ Gallos, L., & Fefferman, N. (2015). The Effect of Disease-Induced Mortality on Structural Network Properties. PLoS One, 10(8), E0136704.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Gupta, A. (2020). “Does Covid-19 Hit Women and Men Differently? U.S. Isn’t Keeping Track.†New York Times. April 3, 2020.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Harko, T., Lobo, F., & Mak, M. (2014). Exact analytical solutions of the Susceptible-InfectedRecovered (SIR) epidemic model and of the SIR model with equal death and birth rates. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 236(C), 184-194.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Harris, J. (2020). “The Coronavirus Epidemic Curve is Already Flattening in New York City,†NBER Working Paper No. 26917.
- He, X., et al., (2020). “Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19,†Medrxiv. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036707v2.full.pdf Hengehan, C., Brassey, J., & Jefferson, T. (2020). “SARS-CoV-2 viral load and the severity of COVID-19,†Working Paper, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Oxford University, March 26, 2020.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Henriques, M., (2020). “Coronavirus: Why death and mortality rates differâ€. BBC.com. April 1, 2020.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Hethcote, H. (2000). The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases. SIAM Review, 42(4), 599-653.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Hethcote, H., & Driessche, W. (1991). Some epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 29(3), 271-287.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Hethcote, H., & Van Ark, J. (1987). Epidemiological models for heterogeneous populations: Proportionate mixing, parameter estimation, and immunization programs. Mathematical Biosciences, 84(1), 85-118.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Hruby, D. (2020). “How an Austrian ski resort helped coronavirus spread across Europeâ€.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Johnson, N., & Mueller, J. (2002). Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 1918-1920 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. Bulletin of the History of Medicine, 76(1), 105-115.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Johnston, J., (2020). “Patrick Vallance says keeping coronavirus death toll below 20,000 would be 'good outcome†Politics Home. March 17, 2020.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Kendi, I. (2020). “What the Racial Data Show. The pandemic seems to be hitting people of color the hardest,†The Atlantic, April 6, 2020 Kermack, W., & McKendrick, O. (1991a). Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics—I. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 53(1-2), 33-55.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Kermack, W., & McKendrick, O. (1991b). Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics—II. The problem of endemicity. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 53(1-2), 57-87.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Kermack, W., & McKendrick, O. (1991c). Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics—III. Further studies of the problem of endemicity. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 53(1-2), 89-118.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- King, A., Magpantay, F., & Rohani, P. (2015). Avoidable errors in the modeling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola. ArXiv.org, 282(1806), 20150347.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Kissler, S., et. al., (2020). “Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period,†MedRxiv, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031112.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Kuchler, T., Russel, R., & Stroebel, J. (2020). “The Geographic Spread of COVID-19 Correlates with Structure of Social Networks as Measured by Facebookâ€. NBER Working Paper #26990.
- Lazar, K., Ryan, A. (2020) “How Accurate Are Coronavirus Tests?†Boston Globe, April 2, 2020.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Lehman, C., Loberg, Clark, & Open Textbook Library. (2019). Quantitative Ecology: A New Unified Approach. University of Minnesota Libraries Publishing.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Li, M., & Muldowney, J. (1995). Global stability for the SEIR model in epidemiology. Mathematical biosciences, 125(2), pp.155-164.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Lively, C. (1999). Migration, Virulence, and the Geographic Mosaic of Adaptation by Parasites. The American Naturalist, 153(S5), S34-S47.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Lourenco, J. et al., (2020). “Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need for large-scale serological surveys to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic,†MedRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042291.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Ludwig, D., & Malley, R. (2020). “Americans Are Already Too Diseased to Go Back to Work Right Now, New York Times. March 30, 2020.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Massad, E., Coutinho, F., Burattini, M., & Amaku, M. (2010). Estimation of R 0 from the initial phase of an outbreak of a vectorâ€borne infection. Tropical Medicine & International Health, 15(1), 120-126.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Morris, D., Rossine, F., Plotkin, J., & Levin, S. (2020). “Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic controlâ€. Working paper. 2020. https://osf.io/rq5ct/ Murray, C. et. al., (2020). “Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator-days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months. Medrxiv. March 30, 2020. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1 Rabinowitz, J. & Bartman, C. (2020). “These Coronavirus Exposures Might Be the Most Dangerous,†New York Times. April 1, 2020.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Read, A.F. (1994). The evolution of virulence. Trends in microbiology. 2(3), pp.73-76.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Ridenhour, B., Kowalik, J.M., & Shay, D. K. (2014). Unraveling R0: Considerations for public health applications. The American Journal of Public Health, 104(2), 32.
- Robinson, M, & Blanchard, S. (2020). “Chief scientific adviser wants 40million Britons - 60 percent of the entire population - to catch coronavirus for herd immunity to take effectâ€. Daily Mail. March 13, 2020 Rogers, A. & Molteni, M. (2020). “The Mathematics of Predicting the Course of the Coronavirusâ€. Wired. March 30, 2020. Rudolf, V., & Antonovics, J. (n.d.). Species Coexistence and Pathogens with Frequency†Dependent Transmission. The American Naturalist, 166(1), 112-118.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Sattenspiel, L. (1990). Modeling the spread of infectious disease in human populations. American Journal of Physical Anthropology, 33(S11), 245-276.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Silver, N. (2020). “Coronavius Case Counts are Meaningless,†538.com. April 4, 2020. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/ Spreeuwenberg, P., Kroneman, M., & Paget, J. (2018). Reassessing the Global Mortality Burden of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic. American Journal of Epidemiology, 187(12), 2561-2567.
- Stein, R. (2011). Super-spreaders in infectious diseases. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 15(8), E510-E513.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Stock, J. (2020). “Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus†NBER Working Paper No. 26902.
- Stock, J., Aspelund, K., Droste, M., & Walker, C. (2020). “Estimates of the Undetected Rate among the SARS-CoV-2 Infected using Testing Data from Iceland,†Working Paper.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Weise, E. (2020). “8 strains of the coronavirus are circling the globe. Here's what clues they're giving scientists†USA Today. March 27, 2020.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Wood, S. (2001). Partially Specified Ecological Models. Ecological Monographs. 71(1), 1-25.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Zhou, F., et al., (2020). “Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort studyâ€. The Lancet, 395:10229.1054-1062.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now