A hybrid assessment model for mineral resource availability potentials

Yongguang Zhu, Deyi Xu, Saleem H. Ali and Jinhua Cheng

Resources Policy, 2021, vol. 74, issue C

Abstract: Traditional mineral resource availability assessment methods always have strong assumptions and limitations on application. Both the physical mechanism of the Hubbert model and the economic mechanism of the Hotelling model can evaluate only specific dimensions of the availability of mineral resources. Therefore, we propose a hybrid model that could explain mineral resource availability from geological factors to the metal market. In this model, mineral resource availability will be assessed by two indicators in a coordinate system. One is the marginal effect of mining technology, which is calculated by the Cobb-Douglas production function. Another is the price elasticity ratio of reserve and production. Meanwhile, we apply this model to assess 13 kinds of strategic minerals in China. Among them, the availability potential of gold, tin and lead is large in the future, while that of iron, aluminum and copper is relatively small. In addition, zirconium, chromium, lithium, cobalt, tungsten and nickel are technology-based strategic minerals, while molybdenum is a market-oriented strategic mineral. Moreover, we put forward the classified management policy based on empirical results.

Keywords: Mineral resource availability; Mining technology; Geological constraint; Price elasticity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:74:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721002944

DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102283

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