Interconnectedness in the FOREX market during the high inflation regime: A network analysis

Shamima Ahmed, Md Akhtaruzzaman, Van Le, Tamal Nath and Molla Ramizur Rahman

Research in International Business and Finance, 2024, vol. 71, issue C

Abstract: Our study employs network analysis to examine the interconnectedness in the Foreign Exchange market, focusing on 18 key currencies from both advanced and emerging markets from 2017 to 2023. This analysis includes a comparative look at the impact of two major recent crises: the COVID–19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. The latter is notably marked by increased inflation and uncertainty in economic policies. During the COVID–19 pandemic, we observed a significant level of interconnectedness among the EURO and 17 other currencies, indicating a dense network. In contrast, the period of the Russia-Ukraine war revealed a tendency for countries less engaged in international trade to become more isolated, as seen by their greater distance from the network's centroid. Additionally, we developed the Systemic Contagion Index, which shows a heightened susceptibility to contagion among developed economies during both the COVID–19 and Russia-Ukraine war crises, underscoring the vulnerability of developed countries' currency networks in times of turmoil. This study provides valuable insights for investors and global businesses, offering guidance on assessing currency vulnerability and enhancing their strategies for hedging and managing risks amidst fluctuating market conditions, especially during the high inflation regime.

Keywords: FOREX; high-inflation regime; interconnectedness; contagion; network; COVID–19; Russia-Ukraine war (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 G01 G11 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531924002605
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:71:y:2024:i:c:s0275531924002605

DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102467

Access Statistics for this article

Research in International Business and Finance is currently edited by T. Lagoarde Segot

More articles in Research in International Business and Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().