Correcting Estimates of Electric Vehicle Emissions Abatement: Implications for Climate Policy

Erich Muehlegger and David Rapson

No 27197, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Transportation electrification is viewed by many as a cornerstone for climate change mitigation, with the ultimate vision to phase out conventional vehicles entirely. In a world with only electric vehicles (EVs), transportation pollution would be primarily determined by the electricity grid composition. For the foreseeable future, however, environmental benefits of EVs must be measured relative to the (likely gasoline) car that would have been bought instead. This so-called “counterfactual” vehicle cannot be observed, but its fuel economy can be estimated. A quasi-experiment in California allows us to show that subsidized buyers of EVs would have, on average, purchased relatively fuel-efficient cars had they not gone electric. The actual incremental pollution abatement arising from EVs today is thus substantially smaller than one would predict using the fleet average as the counterfactual vehicle. We discuss implications for climate policy and how to accurately reflect EV choice in integrated assessment models.

JEL-codes: Q48 Q52 Q58 R4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env, nep-ore, nep-reg and nep-tre
Note: EEE
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published as Erich J. Muehlegger & David S. Rapson, 2023. "Correcting Estimates of Electric Vehicle Emissions Abatement: Implications for Climate Policy," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol 10(1), pages 263-282.

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Journal Article: Correcting Estimates of Electric Vehicle Emissions Abatement: Implications for Climate Policy (2023)
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