Dynamic Econometric Testing of Climate Change and of its Causes

Guido Travaglini

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The goal of this paper is to empirically test for structural breaks of world mean temperatures that may have ignited at some date the phenomenon known as “Climate Change” or “Global Warming”. Estimation by means of the dynamic Generalized Method of Moments is conducted on a large dataset spanning the recordable period from 1850 until present, and different tests and selection procedures among competing model specifications are utilized, such as Principal Component and Principal Factor Analysis, instrument validity, overtime changes in parameters and in shares of both natural and anthropogenic forcings. The results of estimation unmistakably show no involvement of anthropogenic forcings and no occurrence of significant breaks in world mean temperatures. Hence the hypothesis of a climate change in the last 150 years, suggested by the advocates of Global Warming, is rejected. Pacific Decadal Oscillations, sunspots and the major volcanic eruptions play the lion’s share in determining world temperatures, the first being a dimmer and the others substantial warmers.

Keywords: Generalized Method of Moments; Global Warming; Principal Component and Factor Analysis; Structural Breaks. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C51 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-06-30
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23600/1/MPRA_paper_23600.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:23600

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().