Tracking global fuel supply, CO2 emissions and sustainable development

Liam Wagner, Ian Ross (), John Foster () and Ben Hankamer ()
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Ian Ross: IMB, University of Queensland
Ben Hankamer: IMB, University of Queensland

No 7-2013, Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers from School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia

Abstract: Reducing CO2 emissions is imperative to stay within the 2oC global warming ‘safe limit’ of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. However to ensure social and political stability, these reductions must be aligned with fuel security and economic growth. Here an advanced multifactorial model is used to forecast global energy demand, based on global population, current energy use and economic growth rates allowing a critical analysis of global energy use patterns. A severe upward pressure on global energy demand results from the combined interplay of increasing population and continuing economic growth. The predictive output highlights (i) the potential for an exponential increase of fuel consumption (ii) serious fossil fuel limitations from 2033 onward, (iii) implications for CO2 emission reduction in a ‘pro-growth’ global economy and (iv) poverty alleviation. These findings place economists and environmentalists on the same side and establish a reference to guide sustainable development.

Keywords: Energy Demand; Fossil Fuels; Economic Growth; Climate Change; Equilibrium correction Model; Time Series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 O13 O44 Q32 Q41 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-ene, nep-env and nep-for
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:qld:uqeemg:7-2013

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