What Drives the Consumer Confidence in Turkey?

Tugrul Gurgur () and Zubeyir Kilinc ()

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [EN] The literature provides strong evidence that the consumer confidence can play an important role in predicting future consumption; therefore, examining the drivers of the consumer confidence is crucial to the policymakers. This study investigates the long-run (cointegrating) and short-run relationship between the consumer confidence and main financial and macroeconomic variables. We find that exchange rate, interest rates, unemployment rate and consumer prices do affect consumer confidence both in the long-run and the short-run, though the short-run impacts of exchange rate and consumer prices are more pronounced. [TR] Iktisat yazini, tuketici guven endeksinin tuketim harcamalarini tahmin edebildigine iliskin guclu kanitlar sunmaktadir. Dolayisiyla guven endeksini aciklayan unsurlarin ve bu unsurlarin nispi etkilerinin bilinmesi politika yapicilari icin onem arz etmektedir. Bu calismada Turkiye’deki tuketici guven endeksi ile baslica finansal ve makroekonomik degiskenler arasindaki kisa ve uzun vadeli iliski arastirilmistir. Analiz sonucunda tuketici guveninin gerek kisa vadede gerekse uzun vadede doviz kuru, tuketici kredileri faizi, issizlik orani ve tuketici fiyatlarindan etkilendigi ve kisa vadede ozellikle doviz kuru ve tuketici fiyatlarinin etkisinin daha kuvvetli oldugu bulunmustur.

Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:econot:1517

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