FXUS61 KCAR 031747 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1247 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will slowly drift northward in the Maritimes through tonight. Cold northwest flow will be over the area through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 12:30 PM update...Adjusted precipitation chances to include North Woods area as stationary low pressure system to our north begins to creep northwards. Keeping precipitation chances in Aroostook county throughout the evening as light snow bands are showing up on radar as the low moves north, and westerly winds bringing a good amount of low-level moisture into the region. Coastal area begins to clear out more, while northern counties are still overcast. Updated temperatures to match observations. Isolated blowing snow is still possible in the north as snow falls and winds continue to gust up. Otherwise, forecast is on track. Previous discussion... The quasi-stationary stacked upper low north of the area in Quebec will continue to be the primary driver of area weather through tonight. The low will slowly fill and the pressure gradient on the backside will slowly relax. Cold air advection continues through the period as 850mb temperatures drop towards -20C in the north by later tonight. A 850/700mb trough rotating around the upper low is sparking light snow shower activity early this morning which should diminish as the trough rotates eastward out the area today. These showers will be associated with patchy blowing snow in the open agricultural areas of Aroostook County. Some snow showers will continue today where orographic lift plays a factor such as the Katahdin region. Sufficient 850mb moisture remains to maintain cloudy skies over much of the area today and tonight. The exception may be towards the Hancock County coast where downsloping effects may generate some clearing. Although the pressure gradient is slowly decreasing today, a strong LLJ at 850mb remains on the backside of the low with a magnitude of 35 to 45 kt. The cold advection will continue to ensure a relatively deep mixed layer that should produce gusts of 25 to 35 mph today. No advisories are anticipated. The winds will finally decrease tonight. In terms of temperatures, there will be little or no increase in temperatures from readings early this morning due to the strong cold air advection. Temperatures will drop off into the single digits north and teens south tonight. Winds will be more than adequate to keep the boundary layer mixed all night. Wind chills will fall to subzero readings in the north tonight and single digits south && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will continue to meander over the Canadian Maritimes through the short-term period. Weak spokes of energy will rotate around the low. One of which could produce a few snow showers or flurries in the North on Saturday into Saturday night. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail through the period. High temperatures Saturday will be in the teens from the Katahdin region northward, with lower to mid 20s to the south. The trend will be towards more clouds North and a bit more sunshine to the south. Westerly winds will not be as strong as seen in recent days, but the pressure gradient will be strong enough for some gusts 20-25 mph. Winds will diminish somewhat Saturday night, and some clearing could take place. However, not expecting full decoupling anywhere. That said, cold air advection will drop 850mb temperatures to around -20C by Saturday night. Thus, low temperatures below zero are expected in the North Woods, with single digits above zero elsewhere. Sunday will be a cold day across the region. High temperatures will likely fail to get out of the single digits above zero in the higher terrain. Elsewhere, expect highs in the teens. In addition, winds will increase Sunday. This increase will be due to a low pressure system far out at sea being absorbed into the aforementioned Maritimes low. Likely to see wind gusts 30-35 mph, with some 40 mph or higher gusts possible, especially in the higher terrain. This will result in wind chill readings below zero in much of the area by Sunday night. Northern areas will likely see wind chills in the teens below zero, with the coldest spots seeing wind chills below -20F. Actual low temperatures Sunday night are forecast to be in the single digits above zero for most places. Single digits below zero are possible in the North Woods. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry conditions are expected to continue through Monday. It will be windy into early Monday, before winds diminish somewhat later on. Model guidance shows the aforementioned Maritimes low retrograding a bit to the west for the middle of next week. This could mean some light snow or snow showers for northern areas. Not expecting a major storm, but there is some model disagreement. The CMC and ECMWF would suggest some light accumulating snow is possible in the North. Meanwhile, the GFS suggests only a few snow showers. Decided to lean on NBM for PoPs during this period. The Maritimes low moving westward will bring in some warm air advection from the northeast. Thus, temperatures will moderate to normal and then to a bit above normal next week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: KBGR/KBHB: VFR conditions this afternoon into tonight. Winds will stay gusty this evening, but will diminish overnight. Otherwise, no precipitation is forecast for southern terminals, and skies are expected to stay broken/scattered. KHUL/KPQI/KCAR/KFVE: MVFR/IFR conditions due to snow and blowing snow this evening. Blowing snow alongside high wind gusts could reduce visibilities at all terminals. Snow showers are lingering in the area today and into tonight in Aroostook county. Skies are expected to stay broken/overcast throughout the period. Westerly winds stay gusty this evening, but begin to diminish overnight. SHORT TERM: Saturday and Saturday Night...Mainly VFR. Brief MVFR possible with -SHSN possible at northern terminals.Winds WSW 5-10 kts, gusting to 20 kts at times. Sunday through Monday...VFR. Winds W-NW 10-15 kts, gusting 25-30 kts. A few gusts to 35 kts possible late Sunday into early Monday. Monday night and Tuesday...VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts gusting 25 to 30 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Gale Warning until this afternoon for inner-coastal waters, and until tonight for outer waters. The warning will need to be followed by a Small Craft Advisory as seas slowly diminish and winds decrease. SHORT TERM: Wind gusts should be just below Small Craft Advisory levels during the day Saturday. Winds increase above SCA criteria Saturday night with a strengthening pressure gradient. Wind gusts could approach borderline Gale force on the outer waters late Sunday into early Monday. Otherwise, winds are forecast to remain above SCA criteria into early next week. Light freezing spray is possible on the waters this weekend into early next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ050-051. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052. && $$ Near Term...Brennan/LaFlash/MCW Short Term...Clark Long Term...Clark Aviation...Brennan/LaFlash/MCW/Clark Marine...Brennan/LaFlash/MCW/Clark pFad - Phonifier reborn

Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


Alternative Proxies:

Alternative Proxy

pFad Proxy

pFad v3 Proxy

pFad v4 Proxy