FXUS66 KMFR 031735 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 935 AM PST Fri Jan 3 2025 .DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation... && .AVIATION...03/18Z TAFS...Rain and gusty winds will accompany the passage of a cold front as it pushes inland today. This will bring a rapid drop in snow levels (from around 7500 ft msl this morning to 3500 ft msl by this evening), lowering ceilings, and an increase in south to southwest winds. This includes areas of low level wind shear over the higher terrain and across the east side from midnight to around 7 AM tomorrow morning. Widespread precipitation through the morning will taper to showers in the afternoon. Precipitation will mostly be light, except for higher intensity and amounts for Curry, Josephine, and western Siskiyou counties. Conditions improve slightly for the afternoon, but a post-frontal trough will swing across tonight with an increase in light, mainly west side, showers/snow showers, with snow levels remaining around 3500 ft msl. This will also bring an increase in coverage of IFR/MVFR through tonight. -DW/Hermansen && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 841 AM PST Fri Jan 3 2025/ DISCUSSION...The cold front has moved onshore and will continue to push southeast during the day. Moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation is occurring just along and ahead of the front. Precipitation rates will peak out this morning, then drop off in the afternoon with post frontal showers behind the front as the upper trough moves in. Snow levels are at their highest and will only fall during the day. However most of the road snow concerns are expected towards dark into tonight, and a Winter Weather Advisory remain in effect. Meanwhile moderate to occasionally strong winds are being observed near Weed, although it looks like they have reached their peak. Also moderate to strong winds are being observed near and at the ridges east of the Cascades, but they too are showing signs of diminishing. The main change to the forecast was to remove the chance of thunderstorms along the south coast and portions of the marine waters this morning. So far only one lightning strike has been observed and the latest instability parameters suggest instability is marginal at best. This afternoon cold air with 500 mb temperatures between -26 and -29 C move over the marine waters, so if anything were to happen it could be there this afternoon into early this evening. -Petrucelli AVIATION...03/12Z TAFS...Rain and gusty winds will accompany the passage of a cold front as it pushes inland today. This will bring a rapid drop in snow levels (from around 7500 ft msl Friday morning to 3500 ft msl by Friday evening), lowering ceilings, and an increase in south to southwest winds. This includes areas of low level wind shear over the higher terrain and across the east side, including Klamath Falls, overnight through around 18Z Friday morning. Widespread precipitation through the morning will taper to showers in the afternoon. Precipitation will mostly be light, except for higher intensity and amounts for Curry, Josephine, and western Siskiyou counties. Conditions improve slightly for the afternoon, but a post-frontal trough will swing across on Friday night with an increase in light, mainly west side, showers/snow showers, with snow levels remaining around 3500 ft msl. This will also bring an increase in coverage of IFR/MVFR through tonight. -DW/BPN MARINE...Updated 800 AM PST Friday, January 3, 2025...A cold front will pass through the waters today. This will bring an increase in southerly winds and very steep seas, with gale force gusts possible. Southwest winds will remain at Advisory strength later tonight into Saturday morning behind the front, while west swell builds to a peak around 14 to 17 feet at 15 seconds. The pattern looks to remain active through the weekend with seas remaining high and steep. The latest guidance suggests a period of high pressure and north winds developing Monday, and continuing into mid-week with seas dominated by a steep or nearly steep west swell. -BPN/Hermansen && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST Saturday for ORZ027-028. Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ030-031. CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST Saturday for CAZ080. Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ081. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 1 AM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350- 356-370-376. && $$ pFad - Phonifier reborn

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