Operational activities for subseasonal to seasonal long-range forecasting

The WMO RCC-Washington delivers real-time products and information on timescales ranging from weeks to seasons, thereby promoting effective management of climate-related risks and a climate-resilient society.

The week 1 and week 2 forecasts are based on the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) models outputs. The monthly and seasonal forecasts result from the North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from North American modeling centers.

In addition to model outputs, the WMO RCC-Washington provides climate products tailored to the needs of WMO Members in the Regional Association IV for decision-making and planning. The monthly forecasts are assessed and interpreted in the monthly forecasts discussion. Weekly likely hazards (i.e. drought, flooding, tropical cyclone, locust outbreak, abnormal cold and heat) over Central America and Hispaniola are presented in the Regional Hazards Outlooks.

The WMO RCC-Washington performs verifications of subseasonal and seasonal forecasts products and provides an online access to forecasts and hindcast data.

All these products are available for the entire WMO Regional Association IV and for the sub-region on the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico to capture specific features in this area.