SPC AC 031228
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2010
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...
LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE NATION TODAY WITH
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS NY/PA AND SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
RATHER STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...LEADING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IT IS HARD TO
DISCERN UPSTREAM UPPER FEATURES THAT WILL AID IN THE INITIATION OF
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER NV. AT ITS
CURRENT PACE...THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST
CO BY 04/00Z. STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THROUGH
THE DAY...YIELDING AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE SURFACE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SD INTO NORTHWEST KS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KNOTS AND VEERING/INCREASING LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT INDICATE A RISK OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.
..HART/GRAMS.. 06/03/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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