May 24, 2013 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 24 16:29:35 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130524 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130524 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130524 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130524 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 62,681 345,059 Garden City, KS...Sterling, CO...Guymon, OK...Lamar, CO...Dalhart, TX...
   SPC AC 241625

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

   VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
   SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A PROMINENT MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE D1
   PERIOD OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND SRN BC/AB...RESULTING IN A SWLY FLOW
   REGIME ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.  AN
   EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PIVOT NEWD
   TODAY WHILE A SERIES OF WEAKER PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
   GREAT BASIN INTO NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE
   DEVELOPMENTS...THE SRN PORTION OF AN AMPLIFIED MIDLEVEL TROUGH FROM
   ERN CANADA INTO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS EWD/NEWD TO
   OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.

   IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE PREVAILING SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS
   THE ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN A LEE LOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH
   A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO SWRN TX.  

   ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

   THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN A SLY LLJ ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
   PLAINS TODAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE NWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY
   MOIST PBL CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. 
   THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH AN EML WHERE 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES
   OF 8.0-9.5 C/KM WERE OBSERVED BY 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS.  WHEN COUPLED
   WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING
   1000-2000 J/KG.

   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
   WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE
   WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 500-MB HEIGHT FIELD.  THERE IS SOME
   INDICATION IN CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT A WEAK PERTURBATION
   MAY BE MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHICH MAY APPROACH THE
   DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING.  IN GENERAL...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG
   HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH --AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK UPSLOPE
   COMPONENT-- WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM/S/ INITIATING ISOLATED
   STORMS LATER THIS EVENING.  

   FORECAST HODOGRAPHS VALID 25/00Z EXHIBIT 20-30 KT SSELY LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS VEERING TO WLY AT 25-30 KT IN THE MIDLEVELS WHICH WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY. 
   WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...A TORNADO OR TWO IS
   POSSIBLE...AS ARE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  STORMS MAY CONGEAL
   INTO CLUSTERS LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS THE PBL
   COOLS AND STABILIZES.

   ...SRN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

   A NOCTURNAL MCS HAS GENERATED A WELL-DEFINED MCV /PER RADAR DATA/
   OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT EWD/SEWD TODAY. 
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG
   RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN STORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY INTO THE BRUSH
   COUNTRY.  WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...THE PRESENCE OF A
   MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   VIGOROUS STORMS WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OWING TO
   WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS.

   ..MEAD/MOSIER.. 05/24/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
        
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