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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 211630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS TO FRONT RANGE...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...AND STRONG WINDS WILL MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AN EXTENSIVE REGION OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE EAST COAST WESTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE MIDWEST TO KANSAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. FINALLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF VA...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OH WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND APPROACH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS CONSISTENT IN EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THAN PRIOR RUNS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER SOUTHERN PA AND MD...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AN EXISTING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA THIS EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH HAIL OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. ...OH VALLEY... A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF IND/KY/OH INTO WESTERN WV. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS IND/OH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF RATHER WIDESPREAD STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...CO/WY... TODAY WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST CO AND SOUTHEAST WY. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE THAN YESTERDAY FOR MORE SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ALSO...EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER EASTERN CO WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE DCVZ WHERE A LOCALLY ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TODAY. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEB AND FAR WESTERN KS BEFORE WEAKENING. ...W TX/ERN NM... THE SURFACE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. STRONG HEATING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WILL YIELD A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE IN THIS ZONE...WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PROMOTE A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS RISK SHOULD DIMINISH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. ..HART/SMITH.. 05/21/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |