SPC AC 251629

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

   VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY OVER PARTS OF
   SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...MAINLY THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY
   AFFECT PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
   MON...WITH FOUR CORNERS UPR LOW EDGING SLOWLY E TO THE CNTRL AND SRN
   RCKYS...DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONGER/SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPR LOW OVER THE
   NE PACIFIC. ELSEWHERE...RIDGE OVER THE MS VLY SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY
   E AS DISTURBANCE ON ITS ERN FLANK MOVES ACROSS THE TN VLY/SRN
   APPALACHIANS. MODERATE/WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
   NORTHEAST. 
     
   LOW-LVL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN PLNS...FOCUSED
   MOST STRONGLY ALONG MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER WRN AND CNTRL TX.
   THESE BOUNDARIES SHOULD SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SVR
   TSTMS THIS PERIOD. MORE ISOLD STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR STORMS COULD
   OCCUR NEAR WEAK NW-SE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND ALONG WEAK
   FRONT AND SFC TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN PLNS.  

   ...SRN PLNS TODAY/TNGT...
   SVR POTENTIAL WITH SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE FOUR-CORNERS LOW WILL REMAIN
   SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...BUT DISPLACED EWD. AS WAS THE CASE
   SATURDAY...ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP
   GENERALLY ENEWD...WITH THE ERN-MOST ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO
   REGION OF COMPARATIVELY WEAK DEEP SHEAR.

   DAYTIME HEATING AND GRADUAL EWD ADVANCE OF UPR LOW/HEIGHT FALL
   SHOULD FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SFC-BASED STORMS THIS
   AFTN AND EVE ALONG AND S OF EXISTING MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
   TX BIG BEND ENE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY...WHERE AMPLE /35-40 KT/ SW TO
   WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS.

   MCS COLD POOLS APPEAR A BIT WEAKER TODAY COMPARED TO
   YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THE W TX OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CONTINUING TO BE
   REINFORCED BY ONGOING STORMS FROM ABI SW TO W OF SJT. AND...WARM
   SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER STRATUS COVERAGE LIKELY WILL REMAIN THICKER
   RELATIVE TO SATURDAY...LESSENING LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION.

   NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN RICH 925-850 MB MOISTURE INFLOW /PW AROUND 1.75
   IN/...ULTIMATELY EXPECT A SIZABLE SVR RISK TO EVOLVE ALONG SW TX
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STNRY N OF THE BIG BEND LATER
   THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT. THE STORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN YIELD VERY
   LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES...WITH THE
   LATTER THREAT MAXIMIZED FOR ANY UPDRAFTS THAT MOVE MORE OR LESS
   PARALLEL TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEGMENTS FOR SOME LENGTH OF TIME. A
   MORE LIMITED SVR THREAT COULD EXIST WITH ELEVATED STORMS NWD INTO
   CNTRL TX. THE MORE SRN STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO A LARGE SVR MCS OVER
   S CNTRL TX EARLY MON.  
     
   ...SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN...
   WEAK IMPULSE IN MODEST NW MID/UPR FLOW...AND SFC HEATING ALONG/S OF
   WEAK FRONT PARALLEL TO THE UPR WINDS...EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
   SCTD...DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS FROM TN VLY ESE INTO THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS/GA AND WRN SC TODAY. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG SEA
   BREEZE BOUNDARIES IN STRONGLY HEATED ENVIRONMENT OVER FL.

   COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG/ WITH
   HIGH-LVL VENTING PROVIDED BY 50 KT 250 MB FLOW COULD YIELD SMALL
   CLUSTERS OF AFTN/EARLY EVE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY DMGG
   WIND...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS
   GREATEST FROM SE TN ACROSS N GA INTO WRN SC.  

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLNS TO NRN PLNS THIS AFTN...
   STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER NRN NM AND CNTRL/ERN CO IN MID-LVL
   DRY SLOT OF FOUR CORNERS UPR LOW. COUPLED WITH COOL MID-LVL TEMPS
   AND MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION FORMING
   NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. MODEST SHEAR/BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT
   STRENGTH/LONGEVITY.

   FARTHER NE...SCTD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT AND
   PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM ERN WY INTO THE DAKOTAS/NW MN.
   MODEST...DEEPLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR
   STRONG UPDRAFTS MAY PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF
   LOCALLY DMG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN ND.  

   ...NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN...
   HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS OFFSHORE UPR
   LOW WITHDRAWS FARTHER E. BUT SUFFICIENTLY COOL/CYCLONIC UPR FLOW
   LIKELY WILL PERSIST TO FOSTER A ROUND OF DIURNAL STORMS OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. 500-1000 J/KG
   MLCAPE COUPLED WITH 30-40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL NLY FLOW IN THE 700-500
   MB LAYER MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL.

   ..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 05/25/2014

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