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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 011631
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
A COMPLEX PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS...AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
ACTIVE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE MORNING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A MORE PERSISTENT
CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS OVER PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL NEB WHERE LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A SLY LOW LEVEL
JET HAS AIDED SYSTEM MAINTENANCE. THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STORMS
HAVE CREATED MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES FROM SRN MN/NWRN IA SWWD
INTO SWRN NEB/NERN CO WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE FOCUS REGIONS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON.
12Z AREA SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE ROCKIES EWD
INTO THE PLAINS OVERLAYING A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS NEAR 60 OVER WRN KS/ERN CO AND INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER
ERN PARTS OF NEB AND KS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED CLOUDS OVER
MUCH OF IA AND ERN NEB WHERE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CENTRAL NEB CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH ADDITIONAL
STRONGER HEATING EXPECTED FROM WRN/SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO ERN CO
WHERE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON.
CURRENT STRONGER STORMS OVER CENTRAL NEB ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AS THEY MOVE EWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SWD INTO KS AS WELL AS THE CAP WEAKENS
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE EWD INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH NOCTURNAL QLCS MAINTENANCE MOST LIKELY INTO PARTS OF
ERN KS IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER OK/KS.
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
WIND CORE WILL ENHANCE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. THE PRIMARY HAIL THREAT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR TO DURING THE EARLY PHASES OF THE STORM LIFE-CYCLES
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TRANSITION TO AN INCREASING WIND THREAT AS A
MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE DEVELOPS WITH TIME. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH MORE DISCRETE STORM STRUCTURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
ADDITIONAL DISCRETE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SERN
WY AND ERN CO BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN KS
DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET.
...SRN PLAINS...
A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF MAINLY NRN OK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ACTIVITY SPREAD/DEVELOPS SEWD FROM KS.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE WHERE A STRONGER CAP IS IN PLACE. SEVERAL
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THIS AREA WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING
SEWD INTO WRN OK BEFORE WEAKENING. GIVEN STRONG
INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT WILL LIKELY ATTAIN
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS.
..WEISS/DEAN.. 06/01/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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