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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 071629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY AND MID SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE LOWER/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED. AN ENHANCED RISK OF THESE HAZARDS IS FORECAST FROM NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS. ...NERN/EAST CENTRAL NM INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS OF TX... CONTINUED CONVECTION THIS MORNING FROM EXTREME NERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE HAS REINFORCED COLD OUTFLOW AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM SWRN OK INTO SERN NM. THE ENELY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE SPREAD MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NM WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM IN THE 50S OVER NERN NM TO THE LOW 60S OVER EXTREME EAST CENTRAL SERN NM. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER NEAR/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHEN COUPLED WITH PRE-EXISTING STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES VEER STRONGLY WITH HEIGHT AS SELY WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND ELY WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BECOME MODERATE WLY IN THE MID LEVELS...RESULTING IN 35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY...INCLUDING FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. AS STORMS PROGRESS EWD/ESEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SOME UPSCALE GROWTH MAY OCCUR WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS THAT MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE 00-06Z PERIOD. SEVERE THREAT MAY SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...ERN OK/SRN MO/AR ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO MID-SOUTH... WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN MO WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A COMMA CLOUD CONFIGURATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SRN PART OF THE COMMA. THINNING OF CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND STRONG HEATING OVER AR ARE CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION WHICH WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..WEISS/COHEN.. 06/07/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |