SPC AC 141630

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

   VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY TO
   MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
   PLNS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL
   PLNS AND UPR MS VLY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-MS VLY TO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC CST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLNS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL
   PLNS AND UPR MS VLY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL OCCUR
   FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO WILL OCCUR OVER THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
   DAKOTA...MINNESOTA...NEBRASKA...AND WYOMING.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   MINIMAL LARGE SCALE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE CONUS THROUGH MON AS
   RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST KEEPS THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS
   CONFINED TO THE PAC NW...THE NRN RCKYS/PLNS...AND THE UPR GRT LKS. A
   WEAKER SRN STREAM JET WILL...HOWEVER...PERSIST FROM THE SRN PLNS
   THROUGH THE MID-MS VLY/LWR GRT LKS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC CST. SEVERAL
   IMPULSES IN THIS FLOW WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE MID/UPR OH VLY TODAY.
   FARTHER SW IN THE SAME BRANCH OF FLOW...SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT
   WRN-MOST PORTION OF SRN RCKYS TROUGH IS CONSOLIDATING OVER NM ATTM.
   THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLNS BY
   EVE.  

   ...LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY TO MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTN/EVE... 
   VERY MOIST AIR...WITH PW AOA 1.75 INCHES...WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF
   THE OH VLY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE LWR GRT LKS/CNTRL
   APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. ALTHOUGH AREA RAOBS SUGGEST THAT
   MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...POCKETS OF FAIRLY STRONG SFC
   HEATING WILL OCCUR IN WEAKLY CONFLUENT WARM SECTOR SWLY FLOW FROM
   CNTRL IL EWD TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. COUPLED WITH
   ENHANCED LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG DIFFUSE WARM/STNRY FRONT EXTENDING
   FROM SRN LWR MI ESE INTO CNTRL PA...EXPECT BANDS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF
   STORMS TO FORM IN WEAKLY-CAPPED ENVIRONMENT BY EARLY-MID AFTN. OTHER
   STORMS MAY ARISE ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENT/LEE TROUGH FROM
   S CNTRL PA INTO PARTS OF MD/WV/VA. BELT OF 30-40 KT WSW 700-500 MB
   FLOW OVER THE OH VLY...AND 25-30 KT WNW FLOW OVER PA /ASSOCIATED
   WITH SRN STREAM JET/...COULD FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL BOWING
   SEGMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS THROUGH EARLY EVE GIVEN HIGH PW.  

   ...SRN HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
   DESPITE WEAKENED ELY COMPONENT TO SFC WINDS...FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE
   /PW 1.00-1.50 INCHES/ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER ERN NM AND W TX
   TODAY...BENEATH 20 KT WLY 500 MB FLOW. VERY STRONG SFC HEATING AND
   MODEST MID-LVL COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NM UPR
   VORT SHOULD PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN
   NM BY EARLY AFTN...WITH OTHER STORMS LIKELY TO FORM ALONG OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY/LEE TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENTS IN W CNTRL TX AND
   THE WRN/SRN TX PANHANDLE. STEEP LOW- TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
   EXPECTED WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT SMALL CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED
   STORMS AND PERHAPS A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE OR
   TWO LARGER MCSS THAT MOVE GENERALLY SE ACROSS SE NM/W TX THROUGH
   LATE EVE. 

   ...NRN PLNS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
   TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM
   TROUGH IN MB/ONT WILL ADVANCE STEADILY S/E ACROSS THE NRN PLNS/UPR
   MS VLY TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
   WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN PRESENCE OF AMPLE
   MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25 INCHES/ AND MODERATELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
   RATES...THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
   WITH SFC HEATING LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY A TENDENCY FOR THE
   CONVECTION TO BE UNDERCUT BY POST-FRONTAL FLOW...DEGREE OF BUOYANCY
   /MUCAPE OF 1500 TO PERHAPS 2000 J PER KG/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
   A NARROW CORRIDOR OF QUASI-LINEAR MULTICELLS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG
   WIND FROM CNTRL NEB NE INTO SE SD AND PARTS OF MN. FARTHER
   W...SUFFICIENTLY MOIST POST-FRONTAL FLOW ALSO MAY FOSTER STORM
   DEVELOPMENT OF OVER ERN WY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS OF
   SVR HAIL...AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TNGT/EARLY MON EWD INTO THE WRN
   NEB PANHANDLE.

   ..CORFIDI/PICCA.. 06/14/2015

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