Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...Cleveland, OH...Toledo, OH...Akron, OH...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Milwaukee, WI...Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...Cleveland, OH...Tulsa, OK...
SPC AC 281630
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017
Valid 281630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MO...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
INDIANA...WESTERN/NORTHERN KY...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MO OZARKS TO THE
LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED AREA FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from portions of the
lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley through tonight. Strong
tornadoes will be possible, especially across portions of the lower
and middle Ohio Valley. Otherwise, large hail and damaging winds are
expected.
...Portions of the MO Ozarks through the middle MS Valley and the
Ohio Valley region...
A prominent warm sector will continue to build
northward/northeastward across the region through tonight, as a
midlevel speed maximum advances from the southern Rockies
east-northeastward toward the Ohio Valley region. As lower/middle
60s dewpoints also develop northward/northeastward, an expansive
area of MLCAPE around 500-2000 J/kg -- aided by steep midlevel lapse
rates surmounting returning moisture -- will support vigorous
convective development. With warm-sector-coinciding effective shear
around 40-70 kt, a widespread area of conditional significant-severe
potential will exist -- especially from late afternoon into the
overnight hours. Present indications are that clusters of storms
will be evolving from eastern parts of the central/southern Great
Plains northeastward to the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan by
late afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of a baroclinic band --
with this activity spreading eastward into tonight. Confidence has
increased in more widespread severe-hail potential with this
activity, including significant severe hail. Open-warm-sector
convection will likely evolve along a low-level jet through parts of
the Ohio Valley tonight as additional moistening occurs. Effective
SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 will support tornado potential with evolving
supercell clusters. This includes the potential for nocturnal
significant tornadoes, and tornado probabilities have been
increased.
...Portions of the Southeast...
Destabilization along the southern/eastern flanks of convection over
the TN Valley region may support some increase in convective
intensity with storm clusters advancing toward the southern
Appalachians. Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany this
activity.
..Cohen.. 02/28/2017
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
