Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
499,837
30,554,099
Jacksonville, FL...El Paso, TX...Denver, CO...Miami, FL...Colorado Springs, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
440,110
12,363,366
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Minneapolis, MN...Aurora, CO...Lubbock, TX...
SPC AC 071630
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2017
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight from the Rockies Front Range and adjacent High Plains to the
Upper Midwest, in addition to portions of Florida.
...High Plains...
On the periphery of the southern Rockies/northwest Mexico-centered
upper-level ridge, low-level upslope trajectories and modest
combinations of low-level moisture and vertical shear will support a
diurnal increase and intensification of thunderstorms this afternoon
from near Front Range areas into the adjacent High Plains. Isolated
instances of severe hail will be possible this afternoon, but
locally stronger wind gusts may also be a concern as storms tend to
congeal with increasingly prevalent outflows as they progress
generally southeastward through the late afternoon and evening
hours.
...Florida...
The slow general advancement of an upper low over the northeast Gulf
of Mexico and related forcing for ascent/vertical shear, in
conjunction with a moist air mass across much of FL, will continue
to yield a relatively modest but nearly full-period severe risk.
While convective outflow continues to be a factor as far as
cloudiness and local stabilization across south FL as the boundary
continues to be shunted southward of the Keys, clouds breaks and
somewhat stronger heating are noted at midday especially across the
south-central FL Peninsula. Multiple linearly organized
bands/clusters of storms have shown some signs of intensification
thus far from the central Peninsula southwestward into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and these storms are likely to continue generally
eastward through the afternoon/evening. While deep-layer/low-level
shear are not abundantly strong, they are nonetheless sufficient to
support some potential for locally damaging winds and/or a brief
tornado within a moist environment across the region.
...Upper Midwest...
An upper low will continue to move slowly southeastward and
gradually weaken as it spreads from eastern ND to northern MN and
the western Lake Superior vicinity through tonight. Weakening nature
of the low aside, the overall severe risk will be further limited by
modest moisture near and ahead of a weak southeastward-moving front,
with near-peak-heating surface dewpoints likely to be relegated to
the middle/upper 50s F. Even so, weak to locally moderate buoyancy
in the presence of as much as 25-30 kt of effective shear could
support a few instances of hail and stronger wind gusts this
afternoon and early evening. Additionally, it appears possible that
sufficiently steep low-level lapse rates/buoyancy near the weak
surface low/boundary across northern MN might support a brief
non-supercell tornado.
..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2017
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