Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0232...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
522 PM EDT Mon May 06 2024
Corrected for typo in last paragraph
Areas affected...central/eastern KY/TN into the Appalachians
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 062117Z - 070300Z
SUMMARY...Periods of training could allow for a quick 2-3 inches
of rain across portions of southern KY into TN and the adjacent
Appalachians through ~03Z. Localized flash flooding may result
with 1-2 in/hr rates.
DISCUSSION...Visible imagery at 2045Z showed the presence of an
low level low (centered 925-850 mb) along the eastern IN/KY
border, tracking toward the east. A smaller mesoscale circulation
was noted to the south, over south-central KY. South of the
925-850 mb low were active thunderstorms, most of which were along
an elevated convergence axis noted on visible imagery, extending
west to east through central TN before curving toward the
northeast into south-central KY. The environment over southern KY
into TN was represented by 1000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and near 1.5
inches via the 20Z SPC mesoanalysis.
Average cell motions were toward the east at 20-25 kt over TN, but
concern has increased for the potential for cells to repeat or
train from west to east through the evening. As the 925-850 mb low
tracks toward the east into the early overnight hours, ongoing
storms along the convergence axis are expected to generally track
into eastern KY/TN and the Appalachians, posing a localized threat
for flash flooding due to repeating west to east motions. A
continued influx of moist and unstable air from the south may
support additional convective development along the rain-cooled
outflow with similar potential for west to east repeating and
training later this evening...which could support 1-2 in/hr
rainfall rates and localized 2-3 inch totals in ~2 hours or less
time. Area flash flood guidance is generally 1.5 to 2.5 inches in
3 hours for the region, some exceedance and localized flash
flooding may result through roughly 03Z .
Otto
ATTN...WFO...GSP...HUN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...
ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 36978440 36958300 36888241 36798197 36578189
36178209 35968238 35708279 35508311 35258385
35048520 35158791 36128806 36678694 36938528
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