Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0299 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 723 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...northeastern OK into southern MO/northern AR Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 212322Z - 220515Z SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms with rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr (possibly up to 3 in/hr on an isolated basis) are expected to impact northeastern OK into southern MO and northern AR late this evening into tonight. 2-4 inch totals in 2-3 hours may result in areas of flash flooding, especially within the more vulnerable terrain of the Ozarks. DISCUSSION...23Z radar imagery showed a line of thunderstorms extending from central MO into northeastern OK, located just ahead of a cold front. According to the 23Z SPC mesoanalysis, the line of storms was located within a relatively narrow axis of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg) with little to no CIN, just ahead of the cold front. Precipitable water (PW) values were anomalous with the 20Z SGF sounding sampling 1.3 inches, near the 95th percentile for middle to late May, but PW values sampled by GPS observations were higher across the upstream Arklatex with 1.4 to 1.8 inches as of 21Z. Farther east, scattered, mostly elevated, thunderstorms were located along the central MO/AR border into western AR and the Arklatex. These cells were located within a divergent and diffluent region ahead of a 110-120 kt upper jet positioned over the Southern Plains, but the cells were moving ENE into a region of lower instability and greater CIN per SPC mesoanalysis data. Forecasts from the RAP show the cold front racing east across the Mid-MS Valley but advancing more slowly across OK through 06Z, out ahead of a negatively tilted upper level shortwave moving toward the Upper MS Valley. Lift out ahead of the upper trough and surface cold front is expected to erode a warm nose located between 850-700 mb (observed via 20Z SGF sounding), allowing for increasing coverage of thunderstorms containing a mixture of surface based (near the cold front) and elevated cells (farther ahead of the cold front) to affect locations from northeastern OK into southern MO and northern AR. Cell alignment is expected to transition to more WSW to ENE, following the forecast movement of the cold front, supporting areas of training tonight. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be common, but locally 2-3 in/hr cannot be ruled out along with some 2-4 inch totals in 2-3 hours. Areas of flash flooding may result, through 05Z. Otto ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37699198 37679047 37099003 36089032 35489168 35229451 35229604 35699627 36319553 36999419Download in GIS format: Shapefile | KML
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