Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0351
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024
Areas affected...Southwest IA...Southeast NEB...Northeast/Eastern
KS...Western MO...
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 310015Z - 310530Z
SUMMARY...Slow moving embedded convection within narrow ridge
axis. Narrow updrafts with rates of 1-1.5"/hr and highly focused
localized totals up to 2-2.5" pose possible flash flooding through
early overnight period.
DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite and RADAR mosaic denote a line of
decaying MCVs from last night's clusters from SW IA across E KS
toward the stronger shortwave/MCV into S AR. These remain aligned
directly under the synoptic ridge, resulting in very slow motions
toward the east. This also aligns with moderately deep layer
mid-level moisture axis with 1.4 to 1.6" total PWATs. While deep
layer steering is very slow in the ridge, low level inflow remains
20-25kts along the leading edge of ongoing convection supporting
about 5kts of eastward propagation and while instability has been
waning under the cloud deck the axis remains about 600 to 1000
J/kg of CAPE (more along and northeast of the strongest inflection
MCV in NE KS). As such, embedded convective elements remain along
the axis from the OK/MO/KS intersection northward as well as along
the down-shear convergence zone north of the MCV in Riley county
then extending north along the mid-level trough toward the older
sheared MCV in Crawford county IA. As such, pockets of 1 to
1.5"/hr rates support localized pockets of 2-2.5" total over a 2-3
hour period. The rates are not extremely broad given the narrow
updrafts, but localized flash flooding may still be possible
through the early overnight period especially if a cell or two set
up over a metro area.
Gallina
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...ICT...OAX...SGF...TOP...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 42249473 41929400 40689395 38929422 37349405
37149465 37949501 38559554 38969602 39179675
39509716 40559617 42019529
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