Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0372
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
827 AM EDT Sun Jun 02 2024
Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 021225Z - 021600Z
SUMMARY...Slow-moving and back-building super cells are expected
to continue drifting south over the eastern Texas Panhandle this
morning, producing a risk for localized flash flooding until 16Z.
DISCUSSION...Two supercells depicted from KAMA prior to 12Z have
morphed into a multi-cell cluster over the eastern TX Panhandle as
of 1220Z that are drifting south and approaching the I-40
corridor. Overshooting tops are seen in GOES-EAST IR satellite
imagery indicating potent development and large hail is expected
in the highest cores. Past hourly rainfall estimates (slightly
increased from hail) from KAMA exceed 2" in Roberts, Gray, and
Wheeler counties, though KPPA reported 1.6" as of 1155Z. This
activity is shifting south along an instability gradient which is
counter to the deep layer SWly flow around 20kt from an
upper-level trough over the Four Corners states. The LLJ with 25kt
Sly flow and the strong SBCAPE gradient of 1000 J/kg over the
western Red River valley to 3500 J/kg over the Caprock should
persist through 14Z per the RAP, so maintenance of this activity
is likely.
Recent RAP runs further orient the instability gradient over the
eastern Panhandle over the next couple hours which should keep
activity generally in TX, though a new flanking line is over the
upper Red River which indicates some activity could shift east of
100W over the next few hours. 1hr FFG is generally over 3" in the
northeast portion of the Panhandle where activity has been, but is
generally around 2" from I-40 and south, so the expected
maintenance of current rates would result in an isolated flash
flood risk as it approaches the Rolling Plains through the morning.
Jackson
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 35600116 35600047 35239981 33869944 33760011
34040100 34870156 35410170
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