Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0378
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
758 PM EDT Sun Jun 02 2024
Areas affected...east Texas into southwestern Louisiana
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 022358Z - 030300Z
Summary...Robust, slow-moving convection was drifting very slowly
northward across the discussion area while producing 1-3 inch/hr
rain rates. Flash flooding is likely on at least an isolated
basis.
Discussion...Scattered thunderstorm activity continues to focus
along weak, northward-drifting surface boundaries across the
discussion area. The storms are embedded in very strong
instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a moist axis extending
from north-central Texas through southwestern Louisiana containing
2 inch PW values. Modest organization was also noted, with weak,
but veering wind fields with height contributing to occasional
updraft rotation/persistence at times. This was resulting in
slow-moving storms along with 1-3 inch/hr rain rates.
The ongoing scenario should continue to support flash flood
potential over at least the next 2-3 hours. The heavy rainfall is
occuring atop region that have experienced abundant rainfall over
the past couple months, with wet soils supporting excessive
runoff. Low-lying/sensitive areas could also experience excessive
runoff.
Eventually, an MCS across north-central Texas should reach the
area and merge with any lingering convection in the 03-05Z
timeframe. This represents another opportunity for excessive
rainfall. Isolated 2-4 inch rainfall totals are possible through
03Z tonight.
Cook
ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 31999620 31999503 31569308 30889274 30409326
30579481 31389650
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