Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0394
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
608 AM EDT Tue Jun 04 2024
Areas affected...Central to Southeast OK into the Arklatex
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 041007Z - 041607Z
SUMMARY...A strong forward-propagating MCS will drop southeast
this morning across the Arklatex and bring a renewed threat for
flash flooding given very sensitive/wet antecedent conditions.
DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction
with dual-pol radar shows a strong forward-propagating MCS
advancing into southeast OK, and over the next few hours this
powerful, but relatively compact MCS should cross through the
Arklatex region. The airmass across the Red River Valley is
extremely unstable and especially over areas of northern TX where
MUCAPE values of 4000 to 5000 J/kg are in place, and this is being
highly influenced by proximity of a strong EML with enhanced
500/700 mb lapse rates.
A moist southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts continues to
impinge on the southwest flank of the convective mass, and the MCS
should track southeast along the very strong instability gradient
that is in place across the broader Arklatex region.
A bow-and-arrow structure to the MCS may take place over the next
few hours which will be characterized by the leading bow portion
of the MCS advancing through northeast TX, southwest AR and
eventually into northwest LA, while a more linear
northwest/southeast oriented axis of convection redevelops in its
wake across areas of central to southeast OK where the veering,
moist/unstable low-level jet will be overrunning a strong cold
pool.
Rainfall rates with the leading convective bow may still reach as
much as 1 to 2"/hour, but the fast forward propagation will tend
to mitigate the short-term totals. However, closer to the
comma-head of the MCS where a strong MCV is noted over eastern OK,
and with any redeveloping linear bands of convection over
southeast OK in the wake of the bow, there may be sufficient
persistence of convection for an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain.
The antecedent conditions across the entire region, including the
broader Arklatex, are quite sensitive given recent heavy rainfall,
so these additional totals may result in additional flash flooding
concerns this morning.
Orrison
ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 35639705 35519600 35209459 34739369 34209303
33359262 32269284 31869409 32149554 33029655
34379724 35259744
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