Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0420
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024
Areas affected...Southwest Florida
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 110828Z - 111428Z
Summary...Locally heavy rainfall is expected to develop across
portions of the southwest to west-central Florida Peninsula this
morning. Hourly rain totals 2-3"+ and localized totals between
4-6" will be possible, which may lead to flooding.
Discussion...The deep plume of tropical moisture is advancing
north/northeast early this morning, beginning to overspread the
western and southwestern portions of the Florida Peninsula. The
latest blended TPW products show values above 2.25", which is in
excess of 2 std above normal (near +3 in places). Meanwhile, the
combination of troughing over the Southeast U.S. and a lingering
surface boundary in the area is helping to focus showers and
thunderstorms into the southwest/western FL Peninsula. Current
radar has clusters of storms beginning to organize just offshore
Bradenton and Sarasota, with a slow drift north.
Toward daybreak, the expectation is for more widespread showers
and thunderstorms to develop further to the south/southwest and
move across much of Southwest Florida. This activity will be
focusing into several repeating training bands as the low level
convergence increases and narrows. Expect hourly totals to pick up
with this activity, likely between 2-3" at times based on the 00Z
HREF probabilities (30-50 percent probs). The 6-hr HREF
probabilities have moderate probabilities for at least 5 inches
and even a signal for 8" totals (10-15 percent) through late
morning.
Despite the relative soil dryness and higher flash flood guidance,
the potential intensity of rainfall and total amounts may be
enough to overcome that and result in instances of flooding,
particularly for the more vulnerable and sensitive locations
including urban areas.
Taylor
ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...
ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 27478255 27458229 27358210 27138197 26758175
26218146 25868096 25518108 25528137 25988194
26408225 26978259 27258285
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