Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0434
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
846 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Areas affected...Central and Eastern KS...West-Central MO
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 140045Z - 140500Z
SUMMARY...Strong and relatively slow-moving clusters of convection
over central KS will likely expand east over the next few hours
into eastern KS and west-central MO. Isolated to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding will be possible.
DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery in
conjunction with dual-pol radar shows strong convection continuing
to expand gradually in coverage across central KS as very strong
instability and an uptick in moisture convergence focuses along a
cold front. Recent surface observations suggest a wave of low
pressure in close proximity to Russell, KS, and this is helping to
locally enhance the low-level forcing for a more organized and
expansive convective footprint.
MLCAPE values along the front over central to eastern KS are on
the order of 3000 to 4000+ J/kg, and the environment remains
sheared in the vertical column with 0-6 km effective bulk shear
values of 30 to 40 kts.
Over the next few hours, areas of northeast KS in particular are
likely to be the focus for the greatest instability, and with a
low-level jet becoming nocturnally enhanced and veering with time
on the order of 30 to 40+ kts, the active areas of convection over
central KS should have a tendency to develop further and expand in
coverage off to the east-northeast along the aforementioned front.
The surface wave of low pressure traversing the boundary will be
another key factor in promoting an expansion of convection and
locally heavy rainfall potential.
Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are likely, and with slow
cell-motions and some cell-merger activity associated with the
evolving supercell clusters, some localized storm totals may reach
3 to 4 inches. Any flash flood threat across this region is
expected to be isolated to widely scattered in nature. However,
there will be greater sensitivities to the more urbanized
locations. The Kansas City metropolitan area later this evening in
particular may become a target for some of the stronger convective
clusters and heavier rainfall potential, and this was being
suggested by the 12Z experimental NSSL-MPAS guidance.
Orrison
ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 39919446 39729379 39109348 38549426 38239530
37979679 38069806 38399858 38839854 39149804
39499676 39719571
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