Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0465 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 228 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...OK Panhandle and immediate vicinity Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 190627Z - 191030Z SUMMARY...Areas of considerable flash flooding area likely to continue for The OK Panhandle and surrounding locations, some of which could bring severe to life threatening impacts. A slow moving area of heavy rain will continue to produce 2 to 3+ in/hr rainfall rates for another few hours with an additional 4-8 inches possible through 10Z. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at over the southern High Plains at 06Z showed a slow moving axis of thunderstorms entering the northern TX Panhandle from the north. Movement of heavy rain has averaged 5-10 kt to the south over the past 4 hours but movement appears to have slowed over the past hour and some upstream development has continued to manifest into far northeastern NM as a dryline retreats westward through eastern NM. 40-50 kt of southerly flow at 850 mb was overrunning a quasi-stationary front and convective outflow, with the outflow boundary located just south of ongoing convection in the northern TX Panhandle. Highly anomalous moisture near the climatological max for this region of the country and 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE (per SPC mesoanalysis data) was fueling observed rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr with 3 to 8 inches of rain estimated via MRMS over the past 7 hours from Stevens and Seward counties in southwestern KS into Texas and Beaver counties in the OK Panhandle. With an established cold pool located just south of the ongoing convection (located within the southern portion of the northernmost row of counties in the northern TX Panhandle) only edging slowly to the south, low level southerly flow will continue to overrun the boundary allowing for continued thunderstorm development, despite 5-10 kt of forecast weakening through 10Z. Infrared satellite trends have shown new updrafts propagating toward the WSW and these trends are expected to continue over the next 1-2 hours but with slow to stationary movement of heavy rainfall echoes in the OK Panhandle. Additional elevated development of convection will also be possible farther north into southwestern KS toward 12Z, along a strengthening convergence axis aloft, although this additional development is not certain. Localized rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr are expected to continue in the short term with an additional 4 to 8 inches of rain possible through 10Z over the OK Panhandle and adjacent locations. These rains will continue to have significant flash flood impacts for the region with life-threatening flash flooding possible. Otto ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37810224 37799908 37219808 36489831 36109891 35900049 35920238 36040346 36530382 37230356Download in GIS format: Shapefile | KML
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