Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0517
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
958 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast CO...Central and
Northern NM...Far Southwest KS...Portions of the OK/TX Panhandles
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 300158Z - 300758Z
SUMMARY...Broken clusters of showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue into the overnight hours, with locally
concentrated areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential.
DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite
imagery in conjunction with dual-pol radar shows broken areas of
showers and thunderstorms ongoing right now across large areas of
central and northern NM and into southern CO. Moisture and
instability remain firmly entrenched across the region, and this
coupled with the arrival of shortwave energy/MCVs along with
upslope flow into the east and south facing slopes of the high
terrain is expected to maintain a rather well-organized threat for
convection and heavy rainfall heading into the overnight hours.
SBCAPE values remain on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg locally
with the greatest instability currently over southeast CO and
areas of northern NM including the OK/TX Panhandles. Meanwhile,
the PWs across the region remain anomalously high with PWs that
are a solid 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. This moisture
and instability is also pooling up along a quasi-stationary front
draped over the southern Rockies, with moist and convergent
low-level flow along it and with transport of this into the higher
terrain of especially the Sangre De Cristo Mountains.
The latest hires model CAMs support convection overnight becoming
locally focused over upslope areas of southeast CO and down into
northeast NM with rainfall rates that will be capable of reaching
1.5 to 2 inches/hour. Slow-moving cells which may locally be
anchored near the higher terrain before then moving out over the
open High Plains may help to yield some storm totals overnight of
3 to 5 inches.
These rainfall rates and storm totals going into the overnight
period are likely to result in areas of flash flooding. Any burn
scar locations, and especially in the Sangre De Cristo Mountains
will be particularly susceptible to enhanced impacts and flash
flooding concerns.
Orrison
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...EPZ...GLD...PUB...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 39260317 38230198 37400136 36370118 35600222
35250301 34650388 33650521 33350666 34030769
35020820 36020785 37080633 38170540 39170450
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