Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0520
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
948 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024
Areas affected...southwestern Kansas, northern Oklahoma
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 301348Z - 301600Z
Summary...A slow-moving MCS continues to produce 1-3 inch/hr rain
rates along an axis from near Dodge City, KS to Alva, OK. Flash
flooding remains likely, although a gradual lessening of rain
rates is expected through 16-17Z.
Discussion...The combination of mid-level organization and a
mature cold pool associated with a nearly-stationary convective
complex has enabled substantial longevity of a cold pool well
beyond model depictions over the past few hours. Convergence
along the western flank of this MCS (from 15-20 kt 850 flow)
continues to aid in robust updraft redevelopment while maintaining
1000 J/kg MUCAPE within the pre-convective environment. Radar
estimates of 1-6 inch rain totals have occurred with the complex
over the past 3 hours, and 1-3 inch/hr rain rates continue to be
estimated per MRMS especially near/south of Dodge City.
Convective trends suggest persistence of this MCS for at least the
next 1-2 hours, with support by newer updrafts (evident in radar
and visible satellite) feeding into the complex from the south.
Over time, weakening and backing of low-level flow across the
TX/OK panhandles will probably cause an overall weakening and
eventual dissipation of the complex. There is some lingering
uncertainty with regard to temporal longevity of the complex,
however. Trends will be evaluated for any lingering flash flood
risk beyond 16Z.
Cook
ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GLD...ICT...OUN...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 38390007 38159883 37699770 37109678 36269680
35679772 35959946 37180192 38140164 38350097
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