Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0535
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
605 PM EDT Mon Jul 01 2024
Areas affected...Far Southeast AL...Southern GA...Portions of the
FL Panhandle/Big Bend
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 012205Z - 020230Z
SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with very
heavy rainfall rates will continue to pose concerns for some areas
of flash flooding heading into the evening hours across areas of
far southeast AL, southern GA and into portions of the FL
Panhandle/Big Bend area.
DISCUSSION...Very moist and convergent low-level flow in vicinity
of a weak area of low pressure and associated surface trough
combined with a very unstable boundary layer and some modest
northeasterly shear overhead should continue to favor clusters of
heavy showers and thunderstorms heading into the evening hours
across areas of far southeast AL, southern GA and into adjacent
areas of the FL Panhandle/Big Bend region.
MLCAPE values of 2500 to 3500 J/kg are focused over the region
with a deep tropical airmass characterized by PWs of locally near
2.5 inches. There is also about 30 kts of effective bulk shear out
of the northeast. This will yield convective cells with very high
rainfall rates that could easily approach or exceed 2.5
inches/hour with some of the more organized cells.
The 18Z HREF guidance and recent HRRR runs favor some localized 3
to 5 inch rainfall totals with some of the more slow-moving cells,
and the mean steering flow should remain rather light this evening
to promote some of these heavier totals. A few instances of flash
flooding may occur as a result heading into the evening hours.
Orrison
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...
ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 31708478 31548291 30838185 29588182 29148251
29498330 29808399 29708517 30148628 31168609
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