Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0650
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024
Areas affected...portions of the UT and AZ terrain
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 181839Z - 182339Z
Summary...Daytime heating with sufficient moisture is expected to
lead to hourly rain totals up to 2". This would be a problem in
arroyos, areas of steep terrain, and burn scars.
Discussion...Satellite and radar imagery show showers and
thunderstorms building across portions of the UT terrain east of
an upper level shortwave moving across NV. Precipitable water
values of 0.7-1.1" lie across the region. SPC mesoanalyses show
ML CAPE rising to over 500 J/kg in pockets and CIN eroding.
Light southwest flow should keep convection generally constrained
to the mountains, though there could be a little creep downhill to
the west and southwest, towards areas of developing instability in
the valleys. The available moisture and instability could lead to
rain totals to 2" an hour, which would be most problematic in
arroyos/dry washes, areas of steep terrain, and burn scars.
Issues are expected to continue through the afternoon hours.
Roth
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...
ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 41121127 40740903 38781032 37711102 36621156
35301136 33920898 33981049 34841194 36141304
37361308 39641210
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