Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0682 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 350 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Areas affected...Southern WV...Southwest VA...Western NC...Northeast TN...Southeast KY...Northern Upstate SC... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 211950Z - 220130Z SUMMARY...Increasing convection along spines of Cumberland Plateau and Central Appalachians with increasing moisture flux convergence will support rates of 1.5"/hr and spots of 2-3" over the next few hours over steep/complex terrain resulting in possible scattered flash flooding. DISCUSSION...Aloft a broad positive-tilt synoptic trough exists over the Ohio Valley back southwest to Arkansas resulting in broad southwesterly flow across the South and through the spine of the Appalachians. While a wave exited yesterday and scoured very deep moisture east of the Appalachians, supporting some weak damming across the VA Blue Ridge, low level moisture has been returning along upslope flow across NC into SW VA with mid to upper 60s and isolated 70/71F in the foothills. West of the terrain, moisture from the south has banked up through the Cumberland Plateau as the stationary front crosses in the vicinity of the Cumberland Gap and Tds are in the upper 60s/low 70s on that side. Aloft, a 700mb wave is lifting through with enhanced moisture per 700-500 CIRA LPW and RAP analysis centered over teh area of concern. Given a weak circulation in place though depth, there is solid moisture convergence along most directions through SW VA/E TN/W NC; and total PWats have trickled back above 1.5-1.7" in the lower slopes with 1.25-1.5" at the peaks. Solid insolation has provided ample heating to the lower profiles to support 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE west of the spine and starting to creep up to 1000 J/kg east of it as far north as VA. Solid outflow aloft and strengthening/maintaining upslope flow (especially along the eastern slopes) should allow for slow cell motions and increasing rain rates up to 1.5"/hr. Initially slow moving cells may have an hour or two of residency for enhanced localized totals of 1.5-2.5" possibly inducing flash flooding in complex terrain. Eventually cells will organize into stronger clusters/linear features and move off the terrain to the east, rates and totals are likely to increase to support 2-3" totals but may move into areas of higher FFG and less slope. As such, scattered incidents of flash flooding are considered possible through this evening, with greater potential further south nearer deeper moist inflow. Gallina ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38438049 38127973 37677978 36878020 36268049 35648065 35058108 34878241 35188340 35608380 36018390 36298448 36768420 37268328 37718224 38108123Download in GIS format: Shapefile | KML
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