Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0697
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Areas affected...Central Spine of New Mexico Mountains...
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 222020Z - 230200Z
SUMMARY...Flash flooding possible with monsoon/mountain
thunderstorms in proximity to burn scars. Spots of 1-1.5" are
possible
DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows scattered
upslope/mountain thunderstorms across the Sangre de Cristo, San
Juan Range and Southern Sacramento Range, where recent burn scars
remain prone to debris flows even with less than .5" of rainfall.
CIRA LPW denotes an enhanced area of 5-7H layer moisture along the
Rockies spine, through the Manzano to the Sacramento Range before
reaching the core along the NM/Mexico/W TX border. In the lower
levels, animated flux shows slightly above average values from the
Southern High Plains banking up with up to .5" in the 850-700mb
layer as well and surface Tds remain in the low 50s and even low
60s across southeast NM. Easterly upslope flow is weak but with
deeper layer north to south flow parallel to the ranges, the
potential for repeating storms increases from north to south
through the afternoon/evening hours.
RAP analysis suggest the moisture and clear skies is supporting
1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPEs, which is on the lower end of values noted
in monsoonal flash flooding cases, but have been noted in that
case studies, given moisture flux convergence in stronger updrafts
can support 1"/hr rates (on average .5"-.75"/hr rates). As such,
spots of 1-1.5" totals remain possible along the spine of the
terrain in central NM suggesting spotty flash flooding remains
possible through evening.
Current trends show favorable northeasterly upslope flow across
the most sensitive burn scars in the Sacramento Range; with some
north-northwest mid to upper-level flow bringing mid-cloud back
over the southern range. Any backing of the lower level flow
(perhaps later this evening as a subtle/weak impulse drops south)
winds may come around to more easterly an increase the potential
for convergence upstream of the scars. So another round of flash
flooding remains possible through Ruidoso and Eagle Creek Valleys.
Gallina
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 36870667 36750594 36490546 36060505 35430489
34670504 34010510 32690522 31950552 31980607
32810633 33460639 34650656 35970731 36640723
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