Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0837
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Areas affected...Southeastern Arizona...Southwest New Mexico...
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 081945Z - 090130Z
SUMMARY...Slow moving monsoonal thunderstorms capable of localized
1-2" totals pose possible flash flooding risk through this
evening.
DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW denotes returning moisture through the
mid-level upslope through Sonora state, though 700-500mb layer
shows increased values lifting due north toward the AZ/NM border
up to .5-.6" along the trailing boundary of the shortwave across
SE AZ. Combined with the lower levels, total PWATs are reaching
toward 1.5 across the AZ/NM line steadily increasing with lower
elevations (increasing moisture depth) into the low deserts of
south-central AZ with values near 1.75". Aloft the eastern
portion of the MPD area of concern is at the exit of a 25-30kt 3H
jet, weak diffluence, particularly over SE AZ supports modest but
sufficient outflow divergence to maintain activity more than one
up/down cycle.
While flow is weak at 5-10kts in the upslope, full sun and solid
lapse rates support 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE for solid updraft
strength. Local isallobaric influences from those updrafts should
support sufficient inflow for moisture loading, flux convergence
to support rates of 1-1.25"/hr as the thunderstorms mature peaking
around 21-22z per Hi-Res CAMs and derived HREF probabilities. A
spot or two of 2" totals is possible but the intensity of the
rainfall over hard ground conditions may result in localized flash
flooding conditions through early overnight period.
Gallina
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...
ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 34850804 34640739 32560698 31730695 31620796
31190826 31161006 31231099 31691241 32691216
33661116 34150996
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