Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0935
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024
Areas affected...Northeastern Missouri, Southeast Iowa, and
Western Illinois
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 272246Z - 280400Z
SUMMARY... Slow moving storms producing rainfall rates to 3 inches
per hour are growing upscale and interacting with one another.
Prolonged rainfall may result in localized flash flooding as these
hourly rates approach 1-hr FFGs.
DISCUSSION... Despite recent very dry conditions in northeastern
Missouri and adjacent counties in Iowa and Illinois, very slow
moving storms have formed along a surface trough in an area with
PWATs above 2 inches and in an instability maximum of 4,500 J/kg
according to SPC Mesoanalysis. These ingredients all coming
together support continued maintenance and evolution of these
storms going into this evening.
CAMs guidance is poor regarding how long these storms will
persist, as most of the guidance is not handling the storms at
all. Given the aforementioned very favorable ingredients in place,
it seems plausible that the strongest storms capable of flash
flooding will weaken after sunset due to diminishing instability
and very little flow of any kind to advect additional moisture and
instability into the storms.
Wegman
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...
ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 41039201 40829134 40279093 38819116 39649319
40799293
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