Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0982
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
852 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2024
Areas affected...South-Central MS
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 061252Z - 061700Z
Summary...A nearly stationary band of shallow, efficient
convection continues along the I-20 corridor in MS, which could
lead to additional flash flooding this morning as it persists.
Discussion...Radar mosaic highlights a very efficient band of
showers and thunderstorms exhibiting training along the I-20
corridor in MS. Estimated hourly rainfall rates with this activity
have not been particularly intense (.5-1.25"/hr). However, the net
stationary movement of this activity over the last hour led to a
swath of elevated CREST streamflows (100-300 cfs/smi), with spots
of 100% QPE-FFG exceedance noted.
This activity is occurring along a mid-level deformation axis
evident in the composite ALPW suite, with several weak
circulations also noted along I-20 per recent radar. While
instability was weak, completely saturated vertical profiles and
very deep warm cloud layers (14-15,000 feet) will continue to
support very efficient warm rain processes in the presence of the
persistent and stationary forcing.
None of the morning CAM suite is initializing this precipitation
band well. However, the stationary nature of the forcing combined
with the very moist environment should support the maintenance of
this activity for at least the next several hours. Additional
flash flooding is possible, especially over urban areas including
Jackson, MS should the band translate eastward, and along I-20
where a Flash Flood Warning is in effect.
Asherman
ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MOB...
ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 32708969 32528821 32038818 31828929 31959017
32429031
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