Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0991
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
828 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana (including New Orleans
metro and surrounding areas) and a small part of Mississippi
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 120028Z - 120300Z
Summary...Increasing likelihood for significant flash flood
impacts in New Orleans proper and surrounding areas of
southeastern Louisiana.
Discussion...Over the past 1-2 hours, intense convection has
developed on the northeastern edge of the eye wall of Francine,
which was centered near Houma. Rain rates have steadily increased
into the 2-3.5 inch/hr range with this activity. Recent radar
trends indicate that this area of convection will move over the
New Orleans Metro and adjacent areas, where locally
sensitive/urbanized areas exist in addition to potential storm
surge/poor drainage. Given the ongoing scenario, an increased
likelihood exists for significant, life-threatening impacts from
flash flooding, as extreme rainfall totals fall along the path of
the eye wall in a very short amount of time. These intense rain
rates should also cross Lake Pontchartrain into portions St.
Tammany Parish and surrounding areas through 0230Z.
Cook
ATTN...WFO...LIX...
ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 30699010 30678967 30568934 30328917 29908927
29668970 29809051 29889097 30059107 30549081
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