Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1048 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 305 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Areas affected...Middle Tennessee, Central/Eastern Kentucky, into southern Ohio Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 241904Z - 250104Z SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm clusters ahead of cold front may bring 1.5-2.5" resulting in isolated flash flooding into this evening. DISCUSSION...Regional NEXRAD and GOES-E IR imagery shows a few thunderstorm clusters have developed over middle TN and central KY which is ahead of a cold front. Recent rainfall estimates of 1.5"/hr are seen south of Cincinnati and north of Nashville. Sufficient moisture of 1.6 to 1.7" PW and instability with MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg are allowing this heavy development. SWly low level flow, which is parallel to the advancing cold front, is 25-30kt which will keep a repeating thunderstorm threat into the evening and slow eastward progression despite relatively quick storm motions in 45kt mean layer steering flow. There are more flash-flood susceptible areas in the outlook including south central KY where 2-3" fell overnight, urban areas such as the ones mentioned above, and over northern KY where 3hr FFG is around 1". This scattered activity will continue to produce 1-2" in a couple hours with localized amounts of 3" possible into the evening. Should these higher totals fall on the more susceptible areas, flash flooding is possible. Overall the flash flooding is more of an isolated threat. Jackson ATTN...WFO...HUN...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH... RLX... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39678323 39028216 37978207 36338398 34478767 34628872 35478823 36498724 37468652 38028600 39098487Download in GIS format: Shapefile | KML
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